The Monitor (Kampala)

Uganda: Buwembo Got It Wrong on Mbabazi's Land

opinion

I read Joachim Buwembo's article in the Daily Monitor of last Friday and it was quite fascinating. I was very impressed by his article on how easy he made it sound regarding re-investing in the land of Security Minister Amama Mbabazi.

However, I would like to point out a few points; I feel Mbabazi is being given a wrong image regarding this land issue and he is not in a 'win-win' situation at all. In my experience as a banker, the following risks would be involved in a land with such dispute.

True the land has earned publicity. That however does not guarantee the banks' support in terms of financing 100 per cent of the proposed building project, as Buwembo mentioned, worth Shs15b. If the reserve value of his land is Shs15b, we will always take a forced value which in this case would be Shs7b. (I am taking into account Buwembo's claims on the land price whether fictitious or real).

Now on the Shs7b we would lend out only 40 per cent hence around Shs2.8b is the most any bank would give on land worth that much. So please I hope Buweombo understands that things are easier said than done.

Buwembo said 5000 homes can be built there; is he aware only 17 per cent of Ugandans actually have income and a capita of only $1200 every year. Hence the question comes back. How long will it take for Mr Mbabazi to sell these homes?

Yes, banks give loans. But at Shs50m, you would need collateral worth at least Shs100m. Would the person buying the home be able to produce an extra Shs50m as collateral? Further more will he be able to pay about Shs1.2m every month for this home at 21 per cent interest in Uganda whilst the capita is only $1200 per year? Please also consider that.

Another point present here is that Buwembo is only giving all of this just three years time frame. Is it possible to go through three years constant? When will you do the building, marketing, funding etc? Singapore Investment Group took about 18 months to secure a deal worth $30m despite using actively traded collaterals worth over $80m. If you take half of that time, it would still be nine months, close to a year. Bringing me back to the point of how much sense such an allegation makes.

I feel the above points should have been considered before a businessman/politician is targeted even after his tenure with this so-called NSSF. I feel honestly the public are being misled by this article to show that this individual is going to be rich regardless of an outcome when this is not a real practical example.

I feel for Uganda so deeply and would highly appreciate it if flames amongst our people were not blown above average and the truth be delivered.

For entertainment purposes I would like to give Buwembo's article 10/10, but in terms of genuine truth I would underrate it. (Margaret Wokuri's column will be back next Saturday- Editor)

Mr Jivraj is a Ugandan of Asian origin and an investment banker working in Singapore


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