Kitsepile Nyathi and Agencies
5 October 2008
Harare — When Zimbabwe's political rivals signed an historic power sharing agreement almost a month ago at a glitzy ceremony, former South Africa President Thabo Mbeki joked that he did not want to return to Zimbabwe again.
Praising him as a tough and intelligent negotiator, President Robert Mugabe had made a promise that the new government would be set up without any hurdles because what he considered to be the most difficult part had been overcome.
This was after Mr Mbeki spent a tortuous seven weeks mediating in talks between the ruling Zanu PF and the two factions of the Movement for Democratic Change to form a unity government.
The agreement was hailed as a diplomatic victory for a man who was vilified for his so-called quite diplomacy on the Zimbabwean crisis because few people believed Mr Mugabe could be reformed.
But Mr Mbeki is returning to Harare probably this week after Mr Mugabe and the leaders of the MDC formations, Mr Morgan Tsvangirai and Professor Arthur Mutambara have once again failed to agree on the configuration of the coalition government.
The Southern African Development Community, which appointed Mr Mbeki to mediate in the crisis has confirmed that he is headed back to Harare in a few days to try and break the deadlock.
Questions are however being asked whether he would be successful this time around given his apparent reluctance to intervene and signs that Mr Mugabe is now backtracking.
"In the past two weeks Mr Mbeki had tried to demonstrate that he feels he has done his part on Zimbabwe by refusing to commit himself to continue with his mediation role after his sacking in South Africa," said Mr Chris Mbanga, political analyst.
"He was justified because the disagreement over the distribution of ministries was not necessary if the parties were really committed to sharing power."
Will ride his luck
Few Zimbabweans believe, Mr Mbeki will ride his luck again and break the log jam.
After all they were hardly impressed that Mr Mugabe had finally suddenly reformed when he agreed to work with his sworn enemies.
While a number of expectant Zimbabweans celebrated the agreement, others including the donor community chose to take a cautious approach.
Donors elected to give the new government time before they could come to the rescue of Zimbabweans on the brink of a humanitarian crisis because they did not trust the veteran leader to keep his word.
They insisted that the devil was in the detail because Mr Mugabe did not have an impressive history of easily forgiving his enemies during his tortuous reign in the once prosperous country.
It seems they have been vindicated.
Three weeks after inking the deal and after four meetings between the principals of the three parties in the coalition, Zimbabwe still does not have a government in place.
The reason: Mr Mugabe is not willing to cede real power to the main MDC led by the Prime Minister designate, Mr Tsvangirai.
"This was the biggest fraud," Mr Sheppard Rukweza, a mechanic in Harare complained.
"Mugabe has managed to hoodwink us again because it seems that he just wanted the MDC to endorse his re-election so that he could continue with his rule."
Zanu PF is not willing to compromise on sharing the key ministries of defence, finance, home affairs and local government, considered the nerve centers of any government.
As the principals continue to haggle over the sticking points, evidence is mounting that the much-touted agreement is dead in the water and not even Mr Mbeki can resuscitate it.
This weekend, the presidential spokesman, Mr George Charamba gave Zimbabweans a hint that the ruling party is not prepared to honour its part of the bargain.
Writing under the pen name, Nathaniel Manheru in the state controlled Herald newspaper, Mr Charamba warned Mr Mugabe was prepared to walk out of the deal anytime because it was not binding.
"However sonorous the agreement between Zanu (PF) and the two MDC formations may ring, it is not legislation and thus cannot command anyone, least of all Robert Mugabe as the lawful head of state and government of this law-abiding nation," he wrote.
"Those guys must get that plain and clear so we are all spared the present confusion between likelihood and fact, between promise and the present."
He went on to say the MDC was fooling itself if it believed it had any power in Zimbabwe because Mr Mugabe was still in charge.
Analysts say the reason Zanu PF is backtracking is because it realised that it had given too much in the deal and will try to block its implementation at all costs.
But the analysts believe Mr Mbeki could still break the impasse because he would remind the ruling party that it had made a pledge in front of the world and it should live with it.
The MDC believes Zanu PF cannot hold on for much longer if Mr Mbeki finally intervenes.
Meanwhile, President Mugabe and Mr Tsvangirai failed to settle differences in talks on Saturday over the finance and home affairs ministries in a new Zimbabwe government.
A meeting of the two men, also attended by Mr Mutambara, was held to try to break the deadlock over cabinet posts which threatens a power-sharing deal.
"The president and the two leaders of the MDC formations met this morning in consultation over the setting up of government but failed to conclude their consultation," Mr Charamba said in a statement.
Tsvangirai becomes prime minister and chairs a council of ministers that supervises the cabinet.
Mr Mugabe will remain as president and chairman of the cabinet.
Mr Mugabe's ZANU-PF will have 15 Cabinet seats, Mr Tsvangirai's MDC 13 and a splinter MDC faction three seats.
The MDC wants to take control of ministries of home affairs in charge of the police and the finance ministry, giving it responsibility for rescuing the economy.
While the powerful state security ministry will be abolished, it is unclear how the secret police, a key instrument in maintaining Mugabe's 28 year in power, will be integrated into the new government.
Although Mugabe is certain to use all his political wiles to retain as much influence as he can, there is no doubt that the agreement marks an unprecedented loss of authority for the veteran leader after 28 years in charge.
World powers, including the United States and Zimbabwe's former colonial master Britain, are likely to hold back full endorsement of the power-sharing deal until they see the details and how it will work in practice.
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Mbeki has proven that he's useless in these negotiations, just as he was a useless president of SA.