Robert Shaka
6 October 2008
opinion
At 34, am I a historical, revolutionary or just an ordinary citizen? I was in the bush with the NRA from 1981 to 1986 in Kiwanguzi, Luweero.
I lost my father in combat and my mother retired from the NRA as a lieutenant in 1992. Having spent five years of the NRA war out of school and my childhood lost, I went back to primary school in 1987.
In 1996 I joined Makerere University. Now I hear Dr Besigye, a former bush war physician to President Museveni and Maj. John Kazoora have been disqualified from the "historical" club. I really don't care.
What is the fuss about this "historical" club therefore? Has it really delivered the fundamentals it promised in 1986? Today, Ugandans have witnessed a transformation of the former Marxist revolutionary who presided over a frugal, small and efficient government and state apparatus between 1986 and 1995 to a flamboyant ultra-capitalist running relatively one of the biggest governments in the world.
The question is whether the President still has the energy to keep the boat afloat amidst growing squabbles with his rank and file. The "historical" club which mainly comprised characters with socialist leanings is now a preserve of the bourgeois owning estates in billions of dollars. Problem is that this group is predominantly from Ankole sub-region and specifically those claiming marginalisation are from outside the Kiruhura enclave especially Rukungiri and Kanungu.
While the national economy has grown in aggregate terms, the picture is still blurred at household level while politically connected elite amass wealth to unimaginable proportions. The political elite predating off the state is acquiring rural land and dispossessing peasants thus destabilising the regime's traditional safety net since we have not developed a welfare state.
The result has been a growing rural-urban migration of young people that is not matched by the much hyped industrialisation process. The net effect has been slum growth, boda-boda economy and the growing organised crime rate.
Problem though is that the house has caught fire. The Bahororo sub-tribe from Rukungiri with many decorated former "presumptuous" members of the "historical" club is now up in arms and looking at the President with suspicion and anger.
Initially in league with the President, they had political clout. They managed massive security and military budgets from which they curved their power bases and enormous wealth which they still possess with capability to rock the political boat as the President's energy wanes gradually.
These Bahororo former comrades of the President seem to have strong links with a network of wealthy Bakiga Diaspora allied to Dr Kizza Besigye's cause and with a powerful conviction that Museveni has lost the political initiative in managing the state prudently. They also have strong intelligence network with a suspicious regime in Kigali right next door.
A combination of this internal Ankole revolt in the President's court that is in irreconcilable mood as witnessed from the NSSF-Mbabazi Temangalo land debacle, the traditional opposition in the north and east, an increasingly irritable Mengo leadership over land, a growing population of landless and unemployed youths leaves Museveni with a non-tested group of young elite in the military and security agencies under the wing of his son Lt. Col. Muhoozi Kainerugaba.
What is happening is now a regime in free fall mode. The President has lost his power stature over the years. He has been in fighting mood with Mengo over the Land Bill that culminated into the arrest of three kingdom officials. His intelligence coordinator deployed the "Black Mamba," a commando unit that publicly defiled the "temple of justice" during the release of PRA treason suspects by the High Court.
A Daily Monitor photojournalist revealed the commandos often camouflaged in police uniform confirming the regime has actually adopted militarism in dealing with civil matters. The quiet revolt raging within the regime is irreversible and is going to shape the future political landscape in Uganda.
Mr Shaka is a consulting biochemist
Be the first to Write a Comment!
Copyright © 2008 The Monitor. All rights reserved. Distributed by AllAfrica Global Media (allAfrica.com). To contact the copyright holder directly for corrections — or for permission to republish or make other authorized use of this material, click here.
AllAfrica aggregates and indexes content from over 125 African news organizations, plus more than 200 other sources, who are responsible for their own reporting and views. Articles and commentaries that identify allAfrica.com as the publisher are produced or commissioned by AllAfrica.
