Alfred Mulenga
30 October 2008
Will it be Rupiah Banda, Michael Sata, Haakainde Hichilema or Godfrey Miyanda?
This must be the question on the lips of most people in the Southern African Development Community (SADC) as Zambians go to the polls today (October 30) to elect the late president Levy Mwanawasa's successor.
Banda, the Movement for Multiparty Democracy (MMD) presidential candidate, was handpicked by Mwanawasa as his deputy. He organised Mwanawasa's funeral on September 3, so well that he is tipped to win and lead the country to 2011 when the next general election is due.
However, Banda faces an uphill battle, particularly against Sata, leader of the Patriotic Front (PF), the major opposition party in Parliament, which also controls most of the urban district councils, including Lusaka. Hichilema of the United Party for National Development (UPND) is once again expected to sweep the Southern Province where he is regarded as the 'favourite son', while the others, including Miyanda of the Heritage Party (HP), are considered the 'dark horses'.
But whoever is elected president of Zambia today will have to deal head-on and more or less immediately with investor perceptions and the effects of the worldwide economic downturn because, for Zambia, the prognosis is not good.
It could become worse, depending on how the new president is perceived by the legion of foreign investors, who now drive the country's economy. A negative perception could dry up investment even as it already is slowing down due to the ever-widening global economic crunch.
After a sustained period of economic stability and increasing economic gains, the economy seems headed for a downturn. The alarm bells are beginning to ring louder and things seem set to take a turn for the worse, not better.
Already, inflation at 14 percent, is at an all time high in recent years and is clearly adrift of the year-end target of seven per cent. The local currency, the Kwacha, is weakening by the day as the scramble for convertible currency among the major investors continues. The price of staple food is rising and there seems no end in sight.
More fundamentally, the price of copper, the main export whose high price has spawned something of an economic boom in Zambia, has fallen sharply in recent months. And with the global economic slow down now a reality, demand is bound to fall further.
In the first eight months of this year, for instance, copper consumption in the global markets dropped by an average four percent and was a mere one percent in August, as the global economic slowdown began to bite. But in 2007, demand was at an average 37 percent.
While it is accepted that there is some distortion of actual demand because of the huge stocks held in inventory, there are additional indicators that consumption of the metal has actually slowed down.
Fabricated copper production has, for instance, fallen to 18 percent from 23 percent a year ago.
The major hope for invigoration of demand is the continuing expansion of the international power sector since the electrical use of copper still dominates, accounting for about 60 percent of usage.
There are already reports of widespread retrenchments on the mines as a result of the declining demand for, and the price of copper. The layoffs could increase in the months ahead and that is not all.
This year, Zambia imposed a windfall tax on copper mining companies, a measure from which the government is well on the way to raising US$400 million in additional revenue.
The SADC region, and indeed the international community, expects a peaceful and decisive election, whose result will help Zambia move forward as a united nation. Given the events in Zimbabwe, it is everyone's hope that the Electoral Commission of Zambia (ECZ) will perform its functions without fear or favour so that the region is not plunged into another Zimbabwean or Kenyan style political crisis.
Mwanawasa died in a French military hospital in Paris on August 19, after suffering a stroke in Egypt where he was scheduled to attend a special African Union (AU) summit.
He had served less than two years of his five-year term after his re-election during the September 28, 2006 tripartite election when he died. Banda, who was then vice president, assumed responsibility as acting president until elections to find a replacement are held in line with the Zambian constitution.
According to Zambain law, elections must be held within 90 days following the death of an incumbent president.
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