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Kenya: Raila-Ruto Rivalry Threatens to Slice Orange Party in Two

Kipchumba Some

31 October 2008

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Nairobi — Prime Minister Raila Odinga's portrait, engraved in limestone at Kamelilo village, on the Eldama Ravine-Nakuru road, was defaced this week. The orange-coloured portrait was carved by Mr Shadrack Cheruiyot during the campaigns for the December 2007 elections.

But some unidentified people disfigured the 10-foot work of art by splashing red paint on it. And some villagers have vowed to destroy it altogether by the end of the year.

"I carved the portrait to symbolise our solid support for Mr Raila Odinga and the Orange Democratic Movement," says Mr Cheruiyot. "But people around here feel that the Prime Minister has since betrayed them. That is why they are defacing his portrait. In fact, some people have warned me that they will destroy it completely if things do not change."

The attack on the portrait perhaps best illustrates Kalenjins' growing disillusionment with Mr Odinga's leadership of ODM. More significantly, it underlines the deteriorating relations between him and Agriculture minister William Ruto, the de facto Kalenjin leader.

The two leaders' disagreement on crucial party and national issues highlights the intense but covert power struggle between them since the formation of the grand coalition government eight months ago.

Intriguing tale

Although they have repeatedly denied in public that there is such a rift, their close allies tell of an intriguing tale of a bitter power struggle sparked by mutual suspicion and the presidency, which both are eyeing. Their relationship has deteriorated over the past eight months, the allies say, as the two strive to out-manoeuver each other for political supremacy.

"You really do not have to be a genius to know that they are no longer the best of friends," says a confidant of Mr Odinga, who declined to be named, saying this might jeopardise his relations with the PM.

"You do not see them together at public functions, and the few times they meet in private are usually crisis meetings. Everything has dramatically changed since they entered the Government."

Lack of wide consultations and proper communication, coupled with the suspicion that one might pull a fast political one on the other, have evolved into a covert battle for political supremacy between the two leaders as they try repackage themselves for a stab at the presidency in 2012.

This silent power struggle has manifested itself in the divergent views they often hold on crucial national issues. These include the formation of the grand opposition, the impending eviction of people living in the Mau forest and, lately, the controversial Waki report.

The report, in particular, is seen as a litmus test for the unity of ODM and a measure of friendship between the two leaders.

Two weeks ago, the Justice Philip Waki-led commission of inquiry into the post-election violence handed over to former UN secretary-general Kofi Annan, the Kenyan chief peace negotiator, a secret list of people suspected to have funded and planned the mayhem.

The so-called list of shame is said to contain names of at least 10 prominent politicians and businessmen, among them six cabinet ministers and five MPs.

Most of the politicians are suspected to be from the Kikuyu and Kalenjin communities, which were at the centre of the violence in Rift Valley province.

Last week, Mr Ruto publicly admitted that he suspects his name is on the well-guarded list. Parts of the report, which was made public recently, intimates that the planning of the chaos in Uasin Gishu district was done at his Eldoret home, he added.

He has, however, trashed the document, saying that it is based on hearsay, rumours and innuendos. He is ready to resign his cabinet post and face trial if there is convincing evidence against him, he says.

But Mr Odinga, Deputy Prime Minister Musalia Mudavadi and Lands minister James Orengo have called for the full implementation of the Waki commission recommendations. They argue that this will stop the culture of impunity in the country, in which leaders are not held to account for their actions.

But the three leaders immediately drew the ire of other Kalenjin MPs who read mischief in their position. They say the report was tailored to target Mr Ruto and other leaders from the community.

By supporting the document, they argue, Mr Odinga is basically trying to discredit and eventually eliminate Mr Ruto from the political arena by having him prosecuted.

"That is Mr Odinga's agenda, simple and clear," says Konoin MP Julius Kones. "It was nothing about justice or ending impunity, since Mr Odinga is on record as having said that the youth in custody were fighting for democracy. If that is the case, why then did he change the tune when it came to top leaders who campaigned hard for him?"

Kalenjin MPs

The Kalenjin MPs term the matter a do-or-die issue for the party. And when it seemed the party was headed for a split over the issue, a parliamentary group meeting on Thursday unanimously backed Mr Ruto in rejecting the document. The legislators said the report contained serious flaws as a result of inadequate investigations.

"That was a moment of triumph for Mr Ruto and a humiliating experience for the Prime Minister," says Mr Odinga's confidant.

"He (Raila) did not expect the party to reject the report in toto. He had proposed that certain parts of it be adopted and others be rejected, but the MPs would have none of it. It now remains to be seen what he will do next."

But it emerged from the meeting that party MPs, both the rebels and Mr Odinga's staunch supporters, heaped blame on him for no consulting other party leaders before taking a position on the issue, leading to his humiliation.

Crucial decisions

"We asked the Prime Minister to be consulting other leaders before taking crucial decisions affecting party members," says Kisumu Town West MP Olago Aluoch.

"Part of the problem was that Mr Odinga, as the party leader, had already taken a personal decision which most party members were opposed to. Other members felt that he was trying to impose his personal decision on them."

But even before the spat over the Waki report, the grand opposition issue had seen the two leaders pull in different directions.

Some ODM law-makers, led by Mr Ababu Namwamba of Budalang'i, have been pushing for the formation of a grand opposition, arguing that it will ensure that the coalition government is accountable for its actions.

However, Mr Odinga is opposed to the idea, saying that it is being fronted by MPs venting their disappointment for having been left out in the cabinet appointments.

Mr Ruto, on his part, supports the rebel MPs, and says the opposition is necessary to provide checks and balances in government.

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