Hussain J. Ibrahim and Abdullahi Y. Bello
1 November 2008
After a much-awaited cabinet reshuffle that took place this Wednesday, President Yar'adua's action has left Nigerians guessing the new direction his administration will be taking.
On Wednesday this week, there were some stirrings of life from the Umaru Musa Yar'adua administration. In one fell swoop, twenty ministers in the President's cabinet got the sack while nineteen got the chance to retain their jobs. The cabinet reshuffle, though muted since January, was a long time in coming. And when it came, it was something of a surprise because the deliberateness with which the president went about it gave the impression that it may not happen after all.
It was all done in vintage Yar'adua style without any hint or drama, just at the tail-end of the Federal Executive Council (FEC) meeting. Also, there were some disquiet about certain ministers, hitherto thought of as powerful in the administration, mainly the FCT Minister, Aliyu Modibbo and the National Planning Minister, Sanusi Daggash, who got axed. Similar disquiet trailed some who got to keep their jobs in the light of past blunders or controversies that trailed them.
The President's cabinet reshuffle is a serious national issue with a great import because it is like breathing life into an administration, a kind of resuscitative measure for an administration to seize the initiative and bring onboard more capable hands to pilot the visions of the administration for the nation, practicalising it and translating it into tangible benefits for the citizens.
What would have been the saving grace for the administration as it goes about tackling these problems are the quality and calibre of people it invites into the cabinet to support its programmes. People with some track records in the economic and political sphere who are capable of helping turn things around. Here, in his first cabinet appointment, the president did not do admirably well as some of his appointees, especially those who got thrown into the energy and power sectors, the two sectors with the most urgent need of reforms, were those with hardly any track records in that area. He did exhibit some courage at least by not bringing on board, some of Obasanjo's loud ministers even though he initially hinted he will be inheriting his predecessor's ministers save but a few.
The new cabinet members exhibited some incompetence while others got mired in corruption allegations soon into the administration. This saw the two ministers in the ministry of health, Adenike Grange and Gabriel Aduku, getting the sack early on after allegations that they misappropriated the ministry's unspent budget for 2007. But since the inception of the administration, the dominant perception is that things are moving at snail's pace and one could hardly point at a grand achievement that gives hope that things will change appreciably from what obtained in the past.
A reshuffle is something the Yar'adua administration is in dire need of after close to two years, with just two more years and some months left, of foundation laying, as it calls it, and promises of addressing the economic, social and political challenges that for decades now have shown little signs of improving with the multiple effects that Nigeria has seen poverty levels rising despite huge earnings from oil and a rise in serious social and political conflicts that have drawn predictions of the demise of the nation. Other challenges range from decades-long energy crises, which has defied solutions despite the billions of naira to revamp the power sector and resuscitate the country's comatose refineries, a failure which has increased the cost of manufacturing in the country and led to the closure of thousands of industries. Not even the multinational industries could survive the downturn as some have closed shop and quietly left the shores of the country to more business-friendly climes.
Politically, the president is struggling to defend the credibility of his mandate following the outcome of an election that is still the subject of litigation in the Supreme Court. The state of his personal health, where it is purported that the president is battling a serious kidney ailment (the administration says it is a mild ill-health) has not given him the gumption to be the up and doing president Nigeria hopes to see in its moment of crisis. Even though the preceding administration of Chief Olusegun Obasanjo embarked upon wide-reaching reforms that include privatization and the fight against corruption, the economy has not picked up fast and the war against corruption is losing momentum. The administration also has the disadvantage of coming on board at a time the crisis in the oil-rich Niger-Delta is threatening oil production, which accounts for close to 90% of the national income and brewing a rebel army of criminals challenging the authority of the federal government in the region.
For another President, this would have been an opportunity to rally the nation behind him into a grand vision that would translate into change and development. But for Yar'adua, it was a quietly articulated belief in the rule of law and a promise to declare an emergency in the power sector, followed later by the 7-point agenda of the administration. The snag though, is the rule of law has not been made tangible at least as far as national prosperity is concerned and the declaration of the emergency on power is taking such a long time to come. Worse, no one could say what such a declaration will mean for the power sector. It is also the same with the seven point agenda which includes power and energy, food security and agriculture, wealth creation and employment, mass transportation, land reform, security and the provision of qualitative education. While they have become a sort of mantra for the administration, they have not achieved life in the form of clear road maps to their realisation.
This is something which the people the administration invited on board would have done based on competence, just as the Obasanjo economic team did for the administration in the area of debt management. When Okonjo-Iweala got invited from the World Bank to be Minister of Finance to the Obasanjo administration, the question of getting debt relief for the nation was an issue that was clearly articulated and pursued until the objective was realised. So also were the privatization programme of the administration and its promise to fight corruption, even though it later politicised and made selective. All the same, the administration set up the EFCC and the ICPC to wage war against corruption.
The question is, which of Yar'adua's plans for the nation has a clear articulation and who in his team has displayed the necessary capability for its achievement? It is easy to see that only a few fit the bill. This was among the reasons why calls were made for a cabinet reshuffle. But after the sack of 20 ministers and the retention of 19 this Wednesday, there is still some bewilderment as to what criteria was used to sack or retain the ministers beyond political considerations and the influence of godfathers. Certainly, the sack of some ministers came as a surprise so also were the retention of some, if competence and the knowledge of their assignments are really the criteria.
What criteria were used in retaining the Minister of Justice, Michael Aondaakaa and sacking the FCT Minister, Aliyu Modibbo? Aondaakaa's role in pursuing the prosecution of some corrupt public office holders has been so suspect that at a time he was accused by some lawyers of collusion to subvert their prosecution. Aliyu Modibbo, on the other hand, brought due process into the FCTA after his predecessor flouted so many court injunctions against demolishing people's houses, in the process landing the FCTA in a labyrinth of litigations. Modibbo also orchestrated a new security arrangement for the FCT that saw motorised police units stationed at strategic locations in the city centre. He brought forward a plan to build a boulevard, even though criticised as a likely white elephant, which would be paid for through private sector financing. He was what will be described as a visible minister.
But then, as reports have been filtering out since the cabinet reshuffle, Moddibbo was alleged to have gotten the sack because of the frosty nature of the relationship between him and the governor of his home state of Gombe, Danjuma Goje. Others who probably lost out because of their clash with powerful figures include the Minister of Solid Minerals, Sarafa Tunji Ishola, whose relationship with the governor of his state, Ogun State, Gbenga Daniel, has been very frosty because of political shenanigans in the state. The Minister of State for Agriculture, Adamu Maina Waziri and the Minister of Education, Igwe Aja-Nwachukwu, both of whom were sacked too, could have been sacked for clashes between them and some vested interests in their states.
There were others who had to go due mainly to political considerations. They are the two ministers from the opposition who got appointed into the cabinet after the ANPP entered into the Government of National Unity with the PDP, Saudatu Bungudu and Ibrahim Dasuki Nakande. Generally though, incompetence seems to run through all the ministers in the president's old cabinet so that it would be safely said that those who got retained earned that due mainly to the fact that they are still favoured by the powers-that-be.
What picture does the retention of the 19 ministers' paint about the likely direction the Yar'adua administration will be taking? His retention of his two misters of finance, Shamsuddeen Usman and Aderemi Babalola seem to suggest he is satisfied with the performance of his economic team even though, earlier in the life of the administration, an attempt by the Central Bank to redenominate the naira brought into relief, the discordance among the team in policy formulation. The CBN made a quick 'u'-turn, suggesting the policy did not receive the clearance of the administration.
On the foreign policy front, things have also been vague. The best idea the Foreign Affairs Minister has promoted about the country's foreign policy direction was an idea about citizen diplomacy, which idea is to make Nigerians more respected in the world but which method of realisation is quite misty. And even though Nigeria's foreign policy is built around making Africa the centre piece of its focus, it is South Africa which has been grabbing the credit of late with successful peace mediation in South Africa and Kenya.
The same goes with another key ministry, that of Transport whose minister, Diezani Alison-Madueke was retained. The picture might get clearer as the President makes new appointments into his cabinet. But if feelers that some former governors might stage a comeback as ministers is true and that some former and serving governors will influence the inclusion of their spouses, godsons and family members into the administration is true, then the cabinet reshuffle might just turn out to be a political exercise to build new alliances and consolidate on existing influences. Apart from palpable anxiety, where does that leave the Nigerian people and their yearning for change?
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