Mark Kapchanga
2 November 2008
Nairobi — Kenya may once again face maize shortages next year following projections of a shortfall of 900,000 tonnes of the commodity come December this year, a report by Egerton University's Tegemeo Institute of Agriculture says.
The country's total production at the end of the year is projected at 25 million bags against an annual consumption of 35 million bags. Last year, Kenya produced 27 million bags against a demand of 36 million.
High costs of farm inputs and intermittent rainfall have negatively affected the crop, leading to a massive drop in production by over 10 million bags.
The latest report from the Regional Trade Intelligence Network -- a USAid sponsored regional body that analyses grains production trends in East Africa -- indicates Kenya's maize availability balance sheet is likely to be tight by the end of the second quarter of 2009.
The network says Kenya will be holding maize stocks equivalent to less a month's consumption, unlike Uganda, whose stock will be more than a month's consumption during that period. However, Tanzania is not likely to be in a tight position by the end of June "given that harvesting in its southern lowlands starts around this month."
Observers say Kenya risks losing its once tight grip over the regional maize market due to increased costs of production as well as lack of organisation of farmers, "unlike tea and coffee farmers who have their own co-operatives." It is this "incentive" that has lured farmers to coffee and tea cultivation despite their relatively low margins.
The farmers' plight is worsened by the Agricultural Finance Corporation, a body tasked with financing and providing agricultural inputs to farmers, whose weak financial muscle has limited farmers' accessibility to farm inputs at affordable rates.
In early 2002, for example, maize was being sold by farmers at Ksh5 (US cents 8) per kilogramme and it took four bags of grain to pay for one bag of nitrogen fertiliser.
"This has left farmers, mostly small scale, at the mercy of profit-seeking commercial banks." Says Francis Karin, a researcher with Tegemeo Institute.
At the beginning of October, the government banned maize exports indefinitely in a move market players claim will cushion the country from food shortages. Already, Agriculture Minister William Ruto has ordered the reopening of 140 National Cereals and Produce Board depots across the country.
Mr Ruto says the board will buy maize from farmers at Ksh1,700 ($24), per 90-kilogramme bag, a 23 per cent drop from the current retail price of Ksh2,200 ($31) a bag.
"The offer ($24 a bag) will help stabilise the prices and arrest the increasing cost of maize flour," he said.
This year, Kenya was severely hit by maize deficiency prompting retailers to double flour prices from Ksh48 (US cents 68) per two kilogramme packet to Ksh88 ($1.25). The supply gap forced the government to import maize.
In August, the government said it planned to purchase more than three million tonnes of the grain -- to cost Ksh6 billion ($85 million) -- to cover the shortage said to have been brought about by post-poll violence that rocked the country in January this year.
But for how long will Kenya be importing maize at a premium price when most of its districts have arable lands for maize? Analysts argue that the maize importation exercise should only be a short-term solution to the food crisis in the country.
A researcher working with the Kenya Agricultural Research Institute (KARI) says the importation should specifically target the gap that exists between maize demand and supply.
"When the gap is filled, the government should engage in ambitious strategies that will see Kenya become a self-reliant country in food production. By doing so, the country will be able to redeem its glory in the maize market in the region," said the researcher. Statistics at KARI indicate maize production in Kenya has been decreasing at an alarming rate since 2002, with 26 out of the 59 districts producing less than 1.5 tonnes per hectare.
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