Harare — WHAT is Morgan Tsvangirai up to? That is the question on everyone's lips whenever the issue of Cabinet talks between the ruling Zanu-PF and the two opposition MDC formations is mentioned.

Many theories and hypotheses have been proposed to try and explain why Tsvangirai continues to shift goalposts and why his officials repeatedly give conflicting statements on the status of the talks.

The explanations range from the plausible -- such as that there is a lot of infighting within Tsvangirai's ranks over the allocation of portfolios -- to the downright absurd (like the claim that Tsvangirai only wants what is best for the country).

One issue that has not been pursued through its logical steps is a statement made by one of the negotiators concerning the possibility of Tsvangirai morphing into a complete Jonas Savimbi.

It is an allusion that was again mentioned in passing by The Herald columnist Nathaniel Manheru in his most recent contribution and which the media have conveniently set aside in much the same way Dambudzo Marechera spoke of the loud burst of flatulence that everybody pretends not to hear.

The truth is that it is more convenient for large swathes of the private media to blindly swallow the line that Robert Mugabe is a devil through and through and the fault for any deadlock should be placed squarely on his shoulders.

The reality is that the ruling party has accused Tsvangirai of completing his evolution into a Savimbi, meaning that the country is faced with a real threat of instability.

While no one from Zanu-PF will speak on the record on where these claims are coming from, investigations over the past week point to the existence of a genuine plot to resort to the use of armed force by some people in a bid to push Cde Mugabe out.

The existence, or even the mere possibility of the existence of such a plot, makes the deadlock over the Ministry of Home Affairs understandable.

A number of media practitioners who were present at Rainbow Towers on the day that the Sadc Troika announced that a full regional summit was on the cards are aware that Zanu-PF presented a chilling report to the Organ on Politics, Defence and Security.

It would not be proper to disclose the full contents of the report before it is availed to all regional leaders, but suffice to say that Tsvangirai stands accused of either directly facilitating or allowing people close to him to facilitate the training of militias in a neighbouring country.

It is believed that these militias would be used to destabilise the country, thereby creating the conditions for UN Security Council intervention and the holding of a fresh election that would be administered in a manner that would guarantee an opposition victory.

The aim is to try and have the election early next year, probably around March, and it is here where the whole issue gets messy for Tsvangirai because he is supposed to have a congress around February at a time when his own security of tenure within the party is not on the most stable of ground.

Predictably, officials from Tsvangirai's camp have either dismissed or ignored the allegations, despite the fact that they were officially presented to the Organ Troika.

"This is why there is so much contention on the Ministry of Home Affairs," a ruling party official recently said. "Cde Mugabe's position is essentially that, besides the fact that Home Affairs is traditionally a preserve of the former PF-Zapu, you cannot entrust such a ministry to people who could be training a militia.

"How will they guarantee the country's security when their own people threaten Zimbabwe with instability? It is like asking a hyena to guard the chicken run. When Cde (Patrick) Chinamasa says Tsvangirai is turning into a fully-fledged Savimbi, it is no idle statement. It is not cheap politicking. There are serious national security issues at stake here and that is why Home Affairs is proving problematic."

Investigations also show that a few weeks ago when the two Vice Presidents were sworn in, Tsvangirai, Arthur Mutambara and the other Deputy Prime Minister were also supposed to take their oaths of office.

The papers they were supposed to sign were ready, but for some reason the swearing-in was called off and only the VPs were sworn-in.

At the time of writing, it could not be ascertained what was behind the sudden cancellation, but indications are that both Zanu-PF and MDC-T became uncomfortable with such a development.

For Zanu-PF, this discomfiture was driven by the consolidation of intelligence reports that someone could be turning into a Savimbi; and for MDC-T, it appears as if "advisors" instructed the leadership not to take the logical step of being sworn in following the signing of the September 15 agreement.

This ties in with the words of a senior Tsvangirai party official just before the abortive Swaziland meeting when asked how things were proceeding.

"Everything is going according to plan," he gloated.

The question is: what is going according to plan when the talks are not progressing? And how much is Tsvangirai in control of these things that are happening around him?

A total collapse of the dialogue fits in perfectly with the bigger scheme of Savimbi and the involvement of the UN Security Council in our domestic affairs.

The Western community has not hidden its desire for a political set-up that reflects the inconclusive March 29 poll and Britain and the United States have never been shy to say they do not see any need to negotiate with Cde Mugabe.

About three weeks ago the US mission at the United Nations was busy lobbying Russia and China to support them in a vote on intervention in Zimbabwe in the near future.

The US is confident that the talks will break down and there shall be a level of instability that warrants military intervention that is rubber-stamped by the Security Council.

Why are they so confident that this is what is going to happen?

Fortunately, Russia and China resisted this diabolical courtship -- just as they have done in the past -- and the US and its allies are aggressively pursuing the option of widespread instability to spur these two permanent members of the Security Council into supporting their views.

(It is just hoped that the Zanu-PF Government appreciates what Russia and China have done for it and reciprocate accordingly -- soon).

For those who might think that all this is a bunch of conspiracy theory, here is something to think about.

Just this very week, Botswana's leader Lieutenant-General Ian Khama has called for a fresh election under "international supervision" in Zimbabwe.

The ball is already rolling. Watch this space.