Chris Agabi
6 November 2008
Lagos — The proposed 2009 budget may record a surplus, an economist Dr. Mahmud Umoru has said.
In an analysis of the budget and its implications on the eco-nomy by the onetime Central Bank Branch Controller, Kano state, made available to Daily Trust, Dr. Umoru submitted that, since "Nigeria would be spen-ding 20 billion dollars over the next four years on NEPAD, mea-ning about 5 billion dollars per annum beginning, January, 2009 and using N120 to $1 U.S. gives about N600bn not captured by the budgeted expenditure."
He said: "If this amount is added to N2.735trillion, it gives a new expenditure total of N3.335 trillion. If this is deducted from N5.719 trillion revenue esti-mate, it gives a surplus of N2.984 trillion. This means the budget is not a deficit budget as claimed by the news media."
Dr. Umoru, an investor and the Chairman Umoru Invest-ments Holdings Limited Abuja, also noted that "the 2009 budget is the best since after 1979", because, "it is the first time since oil economy began in Nigeria, a determined effort has been made to shift from oil based budget."
"Over the decades, oil has been contributing between 80-90% of government's revenue. The 2009 budget proposal, the petroleum sector contributes only 61.65% of government re-venue. None oil sectors con-tribute 38.35%. If this tempo is maintained, the influence of oil on Nigeria economy will soon become a thing of the past."
He added that this is a clarion call on all the states of the fe-deration to begin to move away from the oil economy and start to rely on what they have to de-velop and sustain their econo-my.
He also noted that with "the increase in local debt service of N387bn and with appropriate monetary policy, the govern-ment is poised to fight poverty to its knees in 2009. And the re-duction of foreign debt payment by N257.8billion compared to 2008 budget will enhance the implementation of the 7 points agenda of the Yar'adua admi-nistration."
"The saving of about N110bn from Paris Club debt relief is earmarked by the budget to en-hance development is credible because all we have been hea-ring is "growth, growth" and "growth" without development."
On the crude oil bench mark he said, "the crude oil benchmark of N45 as against N59 last year, is well reasoned as OPEC count-ries are already planning an inc-rease in crude oil price that will hold for the greater part of 2009."
Also commenting on the in-flation rate, Ambassador Umoru said, "I foresee inflation rate co-ming down to between 6-7% du-ring 2009, GDP going up to 6% and contribution of production to the GDP shall go up to 8% as the budget shall calm down the nerves of stakeholders."
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