Ifeanyi Izeze
13 November 2008
analysis
Barely few weeks from an earlier published analysis in this medium painting a scenario of an imminent arms uprising and total anarchy in the entire Gulf of Guinea, the Nigerian and Cameroonian governments are already at a cross road on how best to tackle a dirty hostage crisis that has resulted in the killing of one of the 10 mostly French hostages seized last week by a Bakassi militant group.
In the analysis, "Bakassi: Oily Drumbeat of Anarchy in the Gulf of Guinea," it was clearly forewarned that Nigeria and Cameroon may pay heavily for the costly mistake of playing international politics in the hush-rush handover of Bakassi Peninsula without thorough analysis of the situation on ground and this has started happening already.
As reported by Reuters News Agency, the Niger Delta Defense and Security Council (NDDSC) and the allied Bakassi Freedom Fighters (BFF), both militia groups opposed to the transfer of the Bakassi Peninsula from Nigeria to Cameroon , kidnapped the ten oil workers from a boat off the coast of Cameroon in the early hours of Friday October 31, 2008.
The hostages were taken from the vessel "Bourbon Sagitta" operated by French oil services firm Bourbon and contracted by French oil major Total (TotalFinaElf).
On Wednesday November 5, 2008, the commander of the militant group, Ebi Dari confirmed that one of the French hostages under its custody was killed in a failed rescue bid by Cameroonian soldiers.
The NDDSC has previously said it wants the Cameroonian and Nigerian governments to renegotiate the deal under which Nigeria ceded Bakassi to Cameroon on 14 August 2008 in compliance with the ruling by International Court of Justice (ICJ).
It has also demanded compensation for Nigerians who chose to leave, and the release of two militia members seized by Cameroon during a series of militant attacks on Cameroonian security forces before and since the handover.
Though geographically, the Bakassi Peninsula now lies within Cameroonian territory, the people are mainly Ijaws of the Nigerian Niger Delta stock. So will the Nigerian government authorities allow Cameroonian army and naval personnel to cross into the other Ijaw communities in the Niger Delta to pursue members of the two main Bakassi (Cameroonian) militant groups?
How is the Cameroonian authority going to distinguish between the Ijaws of Nigeria and those of Cameroon (Bakassi)? Invariably, if the situation is not well handled there may be bloody clashes between the Cameroon security agents and their Nigerian counterpart on issues of territorial integrity and cross border raids in chase of Ijaw militants from both sides.
Both the Nigerian and Cameroonian governments were forewarned in the referred analysis that the following scenarios may emerge as a result of the irresponsible handling of issues of the indigenous people of the area.
"The militant rebels will move that is if they are not there already, into the breeding ground created by the present confusion in the peninsula area of course which is naturally, an extension of the difficult Niger Delta terrain. And if the Cameroonian authorities dare engage the rebels in a fight, they will likely form a joint military cooperation with the already existing disgruntled and militant deviants of the southern Cameroonian self determination campaigners.
"Self determination militia on both sides working together would effectively keep both the Cameroonian and Nigerian governments fully occupied. This will create the enabling environment for criminals (oil thieves, drug and arms traffickers) to do their things while the confusion lasts.
"It is noteworthy that in addition to the oil politics in the peninsula, Bakassi has served as an interface for various drug cartels, arms dealers and oil thieves. So it will be in the interest of these groups, who are mostly foreigners from western countries to perpetually destabilise Bakassi and the entire Gulf of Guinea .
"Another dangerous aspect is that the brewing anarchy in Bakassi peninsula may spill into Angola , where the fragile peace treaty between the ruling government and former rebels seems to be holding.
The leader of the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND), Henry Okah was arrested in Angola for whatever alleged offence. In that country, he was not on a diplomatic shuttle for discussions with the Angolan government or it representatives. Of course, as the Nigerian government alleged, we were told those he was dealing with. This is just an insight into the emerging picture.
"So the problem created by this rush hush handover goes beyond Bakassi and its people. It is purely a security issue for the entire Gulf of Guinea .
"The Nigerian and Cameroonian governments should not deceive themselves to believe that the militants can be easily handled if the picture painted above is allowed to fully evolve. The stage is already set for full manifestation of high level disorder in the gulf of guinea.
In the words of the NDDSC commander, Ebi Dari: "If the Cameroonian government thinks that they can connive with Nigeria and free the hostages by force, then they are making a very big mistake." The tone of the militant coalition on its stand on the Bakassi issue is a clear- enough message to those who have ears to hear.
Mr. Izeze, a commentator on national issues, writes from Abuja.
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IFEANYI,
THE CAMEROUN YOU ARE REFFEREING TO ALWAYS IS CALLED FRENCH CAMEROUN, ITS DIFFERENT FROM BRITISH SOUTHERN CAMEROONS. THAT BORDERS NIGERIA, ITE FRENCH CAMEROUN ,THATS ALLIED WITH FRENCH TO SEIZE BAKASSI FROM NIGERIA, SOO THEY CAN CONTINUE FREE FOR ALL OIL DRILLING AND SENDING TO THEIR FRENCH MASTERS,
BRITISH SOUTHERN CAMEROONS ON ITS PART IS FIGHTING TO GAIN IYS INDEPENDENCE FROM FRENCH CAMEROUN, THE ONE THAT HAVE ILLEGALLY STATIONED FRENCH SPEAKING MILITARY AND ADMINISTRATION INBRITISH SOUTHERN CAMEROONS, WHERE BAKASSI IS LOCATED.