17 November 2008
For the good part of this Election Year, the talk has been about election violence: who, what are instigating it and how to prevent it.
As the nation enters into the final two-week lap to Election Day, though the concern about violence still remains paramount, people are now turning their attention to the equally crucial concern of which party is leading and which presidential candidate is in pole position to become the country's next president.
What is now generally agreed is that three political parties (here in alphabetical order) and their presidential candidates are in serious contention, and they are CPP, NDC and NPP. All three parties have been attracting huge crowds to their rallies and different opinion polls have also been providing insights into the disposition of the race so far.
A recent survey published by the Danquah Institute put NPP presidential candidate Nana Akufo-Addo in the lead. Critics have scoffed at the figures as spurious due to the Institute's affiliation to the NPP ideologically.
The Institute is named after Dr. J.B. Danquah, the other half of the "Danquah-Busia Tradition" which tradition the NPP says it is founded on. According to the Institute, of those who took part in the survey 56% predicted a win for Nana Akufo-Addo, 33% for the NDC and 4% for the CPP.
Research International (RI), a major polling agency in Ghana, in its current survey gives the NPP presidential candidate 48%, NDC 38% and CPP 8%. This means that no party will get a "one touch" victory and Dr. Nduom's 8% could come in very handy for the NPP, if these figures are borne out in 18 days time.
Research International was quite accurate with its prediction that Nana Akufo-Addo would win the NPP primaries last year. If these figures would turn out to be as accurate, the NPP presidential candidate can perhaps start smiling...
When ADM presented the surveys to its NDC sources, they dismissed them outright, saying their own figures show the exact opposite. A "reputable" foreign polling agency, they said had done a more independent survey and firmly established Professor Mills as the preferred candidate of the Ghanaian electorate with figures mirroring almost exactly those of the Danquah Institute, but this time in the NDC's favour.
The CPP however is not relying on such figures, but on the party's presidential candidate's steady rise as a credible alternative to the NDC and NPP candidates. Boosted by the impressive performance in the nationally televised presidential debates, Dr. Paa Kwesi Nduom in these remaining last few weeks to the elections has certainly caught the attention of the public.
Close aides to the candidate have told ADM that he is quietly confident of pulling a surprise, or failing that, become the "kingmaker" in the event of a run-off which they say is looking more likely as the days draw closer and the CPP's confidence grows.
Many "unscientific" insights, however predict a tough election - not exactly surprising - with no clear winner in the presidential race. The NPP as the governing political party is clearly on the defensive after serving two terms.
There is no incumbency advantage to exploit as that was sacrificed in December last year. The wisdom of that decision would be tested this December but some observers often point to the huge crowds that come out, mainly in NPP strongholds however, to greet the party's presidential candidate on his campaign tours as evidence of the wide support the party is still enjoying.
Media people who have been following the campaign however have told the ADM that the NPP would have to work more on the northern regions, Zongo communities, Volta, Central and Greater Accra regions if it is to secure a "one touch" victory. Surprisingly, such media pundits even warn of negative surprises in some parts of the Ashanti and Brong Ahafo regions. The Eastern Region, they say could give the NPP its best showing this time round.
The NDC did enjoy some sunny relations with the media when John Dramani Mahama was selected running mate to Professor John Evans Atta Mills, which spilled over to the general public. It was not only because of the likeability of the MP from Bole-Bamboi, but also because the party did come out after that looking as if it had succeeded in taming Mr. and Mrs. Rawlings.
All of a sudden, an NDC with Mills and Mahama at the helm started looking attractive to even some of the most ardent critics of the party. The NDC took off after that with a bounce that was at once confident and intimidating; then the party's strategists did a u-turn and brought back Mr. and Mrs. Rawlings to lead the campaign.
Now the pair is heard of more than Mills and Mahama thereby putting off many voters and potential carpet crossers who cannot stand the re-election of Mr. and Mrs. Rawlings.
But an NDC insider has told ADM that the party's strategy is to retain its strongholds in the Volta Region, parts of Greater Accra Region, the northern regions, the Zongo communities and chip away at the Central, Brong Ahafo regions and even parts of the Ashanti Region, which he said Rawlings' presence on the campaign trail would not harm.
CPP supporters have not been mentioned in any acts of violence and the party is rightly holding that up as, if for nothing, reason enough for it to be given the mandate next month. Presidential candidate Dr. Paa Kwesi Nduom, flushed with success as the most coherent in the televised debates, is looking more and more as the alternative.
His party, though targeting the whole country, expects a good outing in the Central, Western and Northern regions, but above all, is looking up to floating voters and disaffected NDC and NPP voters who for whatever reason would have stayed at home on December 7.
An insider told the ADM that in '92 they were disorganized and the NDC "stole our people of the Nkrumahist tradition", in '96 they went along with the Great Alliance and in 2000 and 2004 "we helped the NPP, but now we are on our own and we are confident that the name CPP would resonate and our people will come back home..." It is a homecoming that could make all the difference.
But with only a little over two weeks left, haven't minds been made up already? These are elections in which the NDC and NPP can rely on their core voters and the CPP expects a massive home coming. What is it that John Evans Atta Mills, Nana Akufo-Addo and Paa Kwesi Nduom can do to tip the scales for one touch victory which they are all claiming? There can be only one, one touch victory - not two, not three.
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