Karima Brown
25 November 2008
column
Johannesburg — THOSE in the chattering classes still hoping Jacob Zuma will be replaced by his party deputy, Kgalema Motlanthe, as the African National Congress's (ANC's) presidential candidate are living in a fool's paradise.
While that idea has no legs among the majority of power brokers inside the ANC and its allies, the lobby does suggest the succession race in the ANC beyond Zuma has begun.
Zuma has said he will serve only one term in office, which explains the haste about succession plans and the noise about Motlanthe.
Zuma has been endorsed as the party's candidate through the ANC national conference - a decision that cannot be overturned - and he is the ANC's leading campaigner ahead of next year's election. Judging by the ANC's list process, which kicks off in earnest this week, Zuma and Motlanthe will emerge as the president and deputy president combo likely to top the list to be ratified at the party's list conference next year. Pundits need to accept that Zuma will be the ANC's presidential candidate for 2009.
In unpacking the push for Motlanthe to replace Zuma now, one has to look at the balance of forces stacking up for the 2012 ANC elections and its impact on who will lead SA after the general elections in 2014.
Those who continue to lobby against Zuma put forward President Motlanthe as the more rational, acceptable candidate, arguing that Motlanthe comes with less baggage than Zuma and can unify the party ahead of elections next year. On the face of things, Motlanthe does come with less baggage and is certainly presidential material. However, in the ANC, any presidential candidate needs to be endorsed by those who command organisational muscle and support across the provinces, the leagues and the allies. Zuma occupies this position.
More importantly, in politics timing is everything. Pushing Motlanthe at the wrong time holds dangers for his political fortunes beyond 2009. It's hardly surprising that many who call for Motlanthe to replace Zuma now have their eye on the top job in the party and harbour presidential ambitions. If one is to take Zuma at his word about not remaining in office for more than one term, it stands to reason that Motlanthe, as his deputy, would be the frontrunner to replace him as ANC president in 2012 -- which would put him in pole position to become the party's presidential candidate in 2014.
But there is no clear succession plan in place beyond Zuma, and many powerful national executive committee (NEC) members covet the ANC presidency. The ANC's resolution at Polokwane makes provision for the ANC president being the party's candidate for national president, but it is silent on the deputy, leaving the door open for a robust contest among several ANC leaders who have been touted as possible future presidential candidates.
Among those who could emerge as contenders for that throne after Zuma include ANC NEC members Tokyo Sexwale, Cyril Ramaphosa and Mathews Phosa. Other names doing the rounds include Deputy President Baleka Mbete, former military boss Siphiwe Nyanda and Housing Minister Lindiwe Sisulu.
Motlanthe, a seasoned politician, plays his cards close to his chest and is unlikely to be swayed by those pushing him prematurely. ANC insiders point to Motlanthe's reluctance to go into cabinet (even when the NEC asked him to do so) as proof of his lack of ambition for executive office. Others say he sensed that the attempt to push him into Mbeki's executive was a tactical move aimed at sidelining him beyond next year .
Motlanthe is the quintessential party man, respected among all the factions and enjoying broad support within the trade union movement and the South African Communist Party. His detractors know that pushing a wedge between him and Zuma now will damage his chances of succeeding the ANC president.
I can't see Motlanthe making any hasty moves just yet. If he is half the leader many of us think he is he will stay the course and emerge at the right time as the man to lead the ANC and the country.
Brown is political editor.
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