25 November 2008
Maputo — Despite claims by spokesmen for Mozambique's ruling Frelimo Party that Frelimo will have a majority in the new Beira municipal assembly, the indications from an independent parallel count of last Wednesday's results are that no party will enjoy a clear majority.
The parallel count comes from the Electoral Observatory, the largest and best organised group of domestic observers. From 257 of the 260 Beira polling stations, this count shows that, while Frelimo will be the largest single party in the assembly, it will have to form coalitions either with the main opposition party, Renamo, or with the independent Group for Democracy in Beira (GDB), in order to push any policies through.
The Electoral Observatory count gave the following results:
Frelimo: 49,280 Renamo: 45,822 GDP: 18,207 PIMO: 4,108 PDD: 2,725
The assembly has 45 members, and once the Hondt system of proportional representation is applied to the above figures, the likely make-up of the body is 19 members from Frelimo, 17 from Renamo, seven from the GDB, and one each from PIMO (Independent Party of Mozambique) and the PDD (Party of Peace, Democracy and development).
Should the Frelimo and Renamo groups choose to work together they could certainly make life difficult for Daviz Simango, who has won the election for mayor with a majority of almost 35,000 over his nearest rival, Lourenco Bulha of Frelimo. Simango was expelled from Renamo in September, but his spectacular showing at this election is testimony to his personal popularity among the Beira electorate.
The figures from the Electoral Observatory count, from the same 257 polling stations, are:
Daviz Simango (Independent): 76,086 Lourenco Bulha (Frelimo): 41,386 Manuel Pereria (Renamo): 2,863 Antonio Romao (PDD): 1,673 Filipe Alfredo (GDB): 474
Governing a municipality effectively requires cooperation between the City Council, headed by the mayor, and the municipal assembly. In the case of Beira, this may require some difficult negotiations.
If the Assembly sets out to make it impossible for Simango to govern Beira, the central government has the power to dissolve the assembly and order fresh elections. Both Frelimo and Renamo have good reason to fear this outcome - for fresh elections would give Simango the time to organise his own party or citizens' group which, on the basis of Wednesday's results, would stand a good chance of winning an absolute majority.
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