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Africa: Continent Needs Solid Strategy for Doha

Mathabo Le Roux

26 November 2008

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Johannesburg — A TRADE economist has advised African countries to prepare solid strategies for crucial multilateral trade talks, tentatively scheduled for mid-December to conclude the Doha round.

"We are entering entirely different territory with Doha. If the current financial crisis gets really bad, then the political symbolism of getting a Doha agreement would become much more important," said Christopher Stevens, a director at the Overseas Development Institute. "Africa will get crushed underfoot unless it knows what it wants," he said yesterday at a South African Institute of International Affairs conference.

Brazil in particular has been canvassing aggressively for the conclusion of a multilateral trade pact as part of efforts to deal with the global financial crisis.

Stevens said if most major countries opted to push through a deal, there could be immense pressure on Africa to comply.

"The continent needs to be absolutely sure what it wants from this deal -- what its position is on preference erosion, and which products it wants to be classified as special (for exclusion from liberalisation)," he said.

A trade economist close to the multilateral process said news from Geneva was that informal talks, known as green room discussions, which resumed at the World Trade Organisation (WTO) this week, have taken on a different dimension, with negotiating parties showing much more commitment to addressing outstanding issues.

The conclusion of these discussions would give an indication to WTO chief Pascal Lamy whether to call trade ministers to Geneva. A tentative date for a mini-ministerial has been set for December 10.

But SA's chief trade negotiator, Xavier Carim, was less optimistic yesterday. He said there could still be a "slip from cup to lip". Lamy would decide on Sunday whether the gap had been sufficiently closed, otherwise there was the possibility of another failed ministerial, he said.

Carim was adamant on SA's request for additional flexibilities to exclude products from liberalisation, because the country had made deeper cuts as a developed country in the Uruguay round.

Under the current proposed coefficient -- which will determine the severity of tariff cuts -- SA will have to cut as much as 22% of its tariffs by more than 30%. If the coefficient stands, SA would require flexibilities of 21%, he said.

While WTO members have acknowledged SA's request and are broadly in agreement to grant it, the tentative offer stands at 6%.

Joshua Setipa, WTO counsellor in the office of the director-general, said earlier this week that while there was broad recognition of SA's position, it was hoped that SA was in consultation with other members of the Southern African Customs Union on which product lines would benefit from flexibilities, because SA had made its application in the union's name.

Trade economist Colin McCarthy, an associate with the Trade Law Centre of Southern Africa, warned last month against the hasty revival of Doha talks in the face of a sharp downturn in economic activity , because it could yield undesirable outcomes.

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