26 November 2008
Maputo — The Mozambican government on Tuesday approved its contingency plan for dealing with natural disasters in the 2008/09 rainy season.
The plan envisages three possible scenarios. One, the least alarming, envisages heavy rains, localized floods (but also drought in parts of the country) and cyclones. (In the first three months of the year, cyclones sweeping in from the Indian Ocean are almost certain - but many of them dissipate over Madagascar before they hit Mozambique.)
The first scenario could affect 740,000 people, and the measures needed to deal with it are costed at 612 million meticais (about 25 million US dollars).
The second scenario adds flooding in the main river basins in central Mozambique (the Save, Buzi, Pungue, Zambezi and Licungo basins), plus flooding in coastal Zambezia and Nampula provinces, which pushes the number affected up to 960,000 and the estimated costs to 960 million meticais.
The third scenario envisages flooding on the main southern rivers (the Limpopo, Incomati, Umbeluzi and Maputo), and cyclones striking the Cabo Delgado, Sofala and Inhambane coasts. This could affect 1.9 million people, and the needs are put at 1.5 billion meticais.
The government spokesperson, Deputy Education Minister Luis Covane, told reporters that the government currently has 120 million meticais, which will be written into the 2009 state budget, for priority actions, but needs much more, if it is to respond promptly to disasters when they occur.
"These are the sums the government can advance now", said Covane. "We are not acting in the face of any concrete reality. So far, these are just scenarios. They are unpredictable situations, but, as a responsible government, we have to draw up this sort of plan, so that the country is not taken completely by surprise. The geography of Mozambique demands that we take these precautions".
The critical period for flooding is January-March. In both 2007 and 2008, the Zambezi flooded during this period, causing mass displacement of population. By March of this year, 302,000 people were estimated to be in a state of "food insecurity", largely because their crops had been washed away by the floods.
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