Public Agenda (Accra)
Dr. Gobind Nankani*
1 December 2008
opinion
This piece "Catching Up With The "Giants": A Growth Strategy for Ghana"- was delivered at the 60th Anniversary Alumni Lecture on 13th November 2008 at the University of Ghana."
The most significant of these is the current global crisis: this has already brought uncertainty to the prices of food and fuel; commodity prices have been falling; the global recession is worsening and will affect trade, investments, remittances and possibly even aid.
There is a threat to Ghana's growth, to the balance of payments, to the fiscal accounts, and the prognosis for inflation remains worrisome. Projections for African growth have been reduced from earlier levels of 6% closer to 4-4.5%.
All of these will require rapid and effective responses from the next administration. Will these responses be business-as- usual? Or will the leadership find ways of changing the policy environment and implementing policies to increase growth in new ways?
There are also opportunities ahead, which can be turned to favor new growth policies in Ghana:
The most significant is the new oil discovery. The technical approaches to managing this new source of revenue and growth are well known, and we have referred to some of them such as transparency, a Stabilization Fund, an independent Public Investment Office, exchange rate management aimed at keeping non-oil tradeables such as agriculture competitive; and investing big time in education. Will the leadership find ways of putting all of these new policies in place by managing the losers and the gainers as part of a larger social compact?
A second opportunity arises from the structural shifts in the global economic system, with the rise of Asia and of new groupings like the BRICS. Many countries have used external partnerships as an opportunity to foster domestic policy changes. For example, the Eastern European economies fast-tracked many economic institutional and policy changes by joining the EU.
China did the same in 2001 by joining the WTO. Will our leadership be on the look out for similar opportunities, for example, by taking ownership of the Economic Partnership Agreements between ECOWAS and the EU? Will the new leadership take full advantage of China's new role in Ghana and Africa, and seek to both ensure a fair distribution of the gains and also to strengthen Ghana's capacity to gain further from the China relationship?
A third opportunity that may arise in the post-election period is finding a way to create a momentum to free up democratic forces at the District Assembly level and in general to promote greater decentralization on economic matters. This may require Constitutional amendments. But it can help leverage further reforms in favor of rural infrastructure, agriculture and education.
Will these crises and opportunities be used, with vision and deft handling, to help change policies that will put Ghana on a new growth path? Will the leadership find creative ways of compensating the potential losers and giving them a stake in the new policy environment?
Civil society organizations: The growth of CSOs has been rapid in Ghana, as in other countries. CSOs are seen as an essential complementary actor in democracies, even more so in newer democracies like Ghana's. CSOs play an important role in shaping public policy debates, and in some cases, advocating for specific reforms. CSOs include NGOs, the media, the private sector, churches, unions and other organizations outside of the formal governmental structures. In a sense, CSOs are made up of citizens, like you. And I.
How can CSOs help?
NGOs can analyze the impact of public expenditures and policies, and share their results widely with the public so as to promote public debates;
The media have a responsibility to encourage analytically grounded debates on the role of patronage networks, and the departures from more dynamic economic activities in agriculture and the private sector generally.
The private sector, and especially the younger entrepreneurs, who are involved in horticulture, outsourcing, private educational services, etc. have a role to play in fostering a rules-based investment climate.
Will these and other CSOs rise up to the challenge?
Conclusion: Let me conclude with a call to action: to the new political leadership;to NGOs,the media,the private sector,the new entrepreneurs,and other CSOs. Indeed to all of us.
As I have argued, the experience of the giants indicates that sustained growth is possible. And Ghana can embark on it.
Ghana can take advantage of crises and opportunities to make a frontal assault on the challenge of growth in Ghana.
The results would be outstanding!
We would have a stronger and more sustainable growth path;
We would be able to take advantage of our natural resources and move to a more manufacturing and services-driven economy..
We would see millions more people move above the poverty line and indeed create wealth, especially in rural and Northern Ghana and finally, we would see Ghana ultimately join the "giants" of growth.
Will we heed this call?
Will Ghana's growth dream emerge from the efforts of our civil society organizations? Indeed, from each one of us?
And, above all,WILL OUR LEADERSHIP HEED THIS CALL?
*Dr Gobind Nankani, President, Global Development Network andFormer Vice President of Africa, World Bank
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