Colin Anthony
2 December 2008
Johannesburg — Karlsson, having won the European Order of Merit, may wonder why, as the second-highest ranked player in the field after Sergio Garcia, so little fuss is being made of his chances. The bookies have him as second favourite, due to his ranking and current form. But the gap between his odds of 13/2 and Garcia's 5/2 is huge.
Stenson is third favourite at 7/1, followed by Lee Westwood, Trevor Immelman and Justin Rose -- but they are all only slightly behind Karlsson. In other words, Rose, ranked 18th in the world, has odds only slightly more attractive than Karlsson, ranked sixth.
If Karlsson were a fly on the wall in various clubhouse pubs across the country, he would be flummoxed by the fact that he barely gets a mention. People will discuss Immelman, Rory Sabbatini, Garcia, Lee Westwood and Rose. The thoughtful ones (that's me) will say watch out for Stenson. But nobody will be predicting Karlsson.
The simple reason is that the Gary Player layout at Sun City is notoriously harsh on first-time entrants, who find it difficult to come to terms with the unforgiving nature of the course. (A stray shot into the bush usually means an automatic reload.) As for the kikuyu -- a grass which looks innocuous enough -- just a few inches of the stuff grab the ball possessively, making it nearly impossible to hit the correct distance.
Not even Tiger Woods could manage a victory on his debut -- although it took some sensational play by Nick Price to beat him in a play-off in 1998.
Only four players have won on debut, and all of those came in the first five years of the tournament's history: Johnny Miller in the first edition in 1981 (obviously); Ray Floyd the next year, Bernhard Langer in 1985 and Mark McNulty in 1986.
So for the past 20 tournaments, only previous competitors have managed to win it. That's some statistic.
Can Karlsson break that run? He will certainly have sought advice from those who have competed at Sun City, including Stenson, who knows just how difficult it is to win there.
Stenson nearly broke the voodoo. He is visiting for the third time and, in his very first competitive round on the course in 2006, he shot a 67 to hold the first-round lead. Much was made of his chances of winning on debut, but a pair of 71s on days two and three saw his hopes fizzle away and, after a final-round 69, he finished second to Jim Furyk. He returned last year to finish fourth.
That's some going, but his impressive record is no fluke -- one of the strengths of Stenson's game is his accuracy with his long irons, an invaluable asset at the Gary Player Country Club where finding the right positions on the fairways and greens is so important.
About two years ago I predicted that Stenson would win a Major within two years. Clearly it shows how little I know, but what impressed me about him was his calmness under pressure and his laser-like accuracy.
The high-flying Garcia is the man to beat this week, but in golf the favourite doesn't win that often. I fancy Stenson; he has the game and the temperament to conquer the Gary Player layout on his third attempt.
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