Johannesburg — TOP South African sports security consultant Rory Steyn said yesterday the entire Asian subcontinent was "very volatile" at the moment and that the next year was going to be very interesting in terms of the effect the situation might have on cricket.

Steyn, a partner in top South African security company, Nicholls, Steyn and Associates, which was involved in security risk assessments for the 2003 and last year's World Cup in SA and the West Indies -- and the postponed Champions Trophy in Pakistan -- said the security community was very concerned about what might happen between India and Pakistan in the wake of the Mumbai terrorist attacks.

He said his company was in the process of setting up an office in Mumbai, specifically to keep a watching brief on developments there.

On the issue of security and cricket in the subcontinent, Steyn said he was concerned that the whole matter of cancelled tours might lead to a "tit for tat" situation in world cricket.

"If England cancel tours because they believe the security situation in the country is unstable, then India, Sri Lanka and Pakistan could easily turn around and say they are cancelling tours to Britain. I have already heard the question being asked: is England less or more safe than India -- because both countries have been exposed to terrorism?"

Steyn pointed out that the so-called 7/7 bombings had occurred in London while Australia were touring, and they had not gone home. But when bombs went off in the subcontinent, what all teams wanted to do was go home.

"A lot of it is to do with comfort levels," he said. "The Aussies experience a far higher comfort level when they are touring England, than they do when they are touring the subcontinent, where conditions and culture are so different. So when the bomb goes off in England, they stay, but when bombs go off in India, they want to go home.

"So the subcontinental countries are going to argue that there is a double standard and that could have damaging consequences for cricket."

Steyn said that while there were security issues in some countries "the biggest threat to events like the World Cup or the Champions Trophy, is perception.

"Perception plays a far bigger role in decisions than actual facts on the ground do, and that is a problem. In the players' minds, and those of their families and cricket associations, there might be a huge threat whereas facts on the ground reveal otherwise.

"What should be happening, is that decisions should be getting based on facts on the ground, accumulated by security specialists.

"Very often, as we in this country know, a situation looks much worse from a distance than it does in the country itself. If a bomb explodes in the northeast of Sri Lanka and a team is playing in Galle (on the southern coast ) then teams say get out. But, in reality, the threat is a very long way away.

"Very often, perceptions are much more alarmist than the reality," said Steyn.

"When we get asked for security advice we always point to various outcomes. We point out that there are certain outcomes that even the best security plans cannot affect. Foolproof security is basically a utopian ideal. No one can plan for a situation in which a nutcase straps bombs to himself and walks into a hotel.

"Even governments are limited in what they can do to deal with terrorism."

Steyn said he would not like to speculate on the effects the attacks in Mumbai might have on the future of cricket.

"We have to drill down very deep to get to the facts behind the attacks. So we need more time to get a realistic picture of where India is. It is much too soon to tell which organisation was behind the Mumbai attacks, and what their capacities and capabilities are."

He totally endorsed South African Players' Association CEO Tony Irish's view that a full reassessment should be made in three months.

"What we need is for cricketers and cricket associations not to make knee-jerk decisions but decisions based on facts on the ground.

"Cricketers are not security specialists, nor are their mothers sitting thousands of kilometres away," he said.