Chris Van Gass
12 December 2008
Cape Town — THE chances of the African National Congress (ANC) in Western Cape retaining control of the province in next year's general election have been dealt a heavy blow by its poor showing in this week's by-elections.
It won only three of 27 seats there. Political observers said the significance of the results was not necessarily what parties such as the breakaway Congress of the People (COPE) gained, but what the ANC lost.
The Independent Electoral Commission said yesterday that 10 seats in Western Cape went to independent candidates, which COPE claimed as its members, while the Democratic Alliance (DA) won nine, the Independent Democrats five and the ANC three.
COPE candidates could not contest the polls under its banner because the commission had not yet registered it.
Pamela Masiko-Kambala of political think-tank Idasa said the results had to be worrying for the ANC.
That the ANC had lost "even 5% or 10% of support" was significant, given the party's previous unquestioned support, she said.
Masiko-Kambala cautioned, however, that the results did not mean automatically that the ANC would fare similarly in provincial and national elections, "which were different". She believed, though, that the ANC would lose the province.
While voter turnout in wards in the city of Cape Town was low, high turnouts were recorded in the rural areas, about 50% more than in previous by-elections.
The commission would not let the ANC participate in 12 of the 27 by-elections because it had failed to register its candidates in time.
The ANC said that had disenfranchised "tens of thousands of voters" in ANC strongholds, and distorted the political landscape.
Garth Strachan of the ANC said that in the city of Cape Town only one in five voters cast ballots, which he attributed to the ANC's nonparticipation.
Strachan said that while the losses were disappointing they were in the rural areas, where the vote was highly contested, and the ANC had suffered "only marginal losses".
The DA's Ryan Coetzee said that the "simple message" from the by-election results was that the DA was on track to win Western Cape.
In total, the ANC and the DA each won 11 seats in 41 by-elections nationwide, independent candidates 10, the Independent Democrats five and the Inkatha Freedom Party four. With Sapa
The DA registered significant increases in support in black wards. In Kosovo in Cape Town, the DA increased its share of the vote from 0.3% (26 votes) in 2006 to 25% (528 votes). In Langa, the DA increased its support from 2.2% in 2006 to 16.5%
In the Western Cape, the DA won nine out of 18 wards previously held by the ANC. Four of these nine wards were contested by the ANC.
There were nine wards in which all of the DA, ANC, Cope and the ID fielded a candidate; the DA won 4, the ID 3 and COPE 2. The ANC failed to win a single one of these wards.
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