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ENOUGH Project (Washington, DC)

Congo-Kinshasa: Beyond Crisis Management in the East

Rebecca Feeley and Colin Thomas-Jensen

12 December 2008

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The beleaguered people of North Kivu province in the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo are justifiably angry. Despite the international community's $500 million investment in 2006 elections and the world's largest United Nations peacekeeping mission (costing more than $1 billion per year), the current round of fighting is the most destructive since 2005 and the latest chapter in more than 12 years of near continuous warfare.

For civilians ensnared by violence, the recent announcement of 3,000 additional United Nations peacekeepers is cold comfort, and high-profile stopovers by international diplomats and front-page headlines have changed few of the facts on the ground. The belated appointment of former Nigerian President Olesegun Obasanjo as U.N. special envoy and former Tanzanian President Benjamin Mkapa as Great Lakes mediator are positive steps, as both bring the necessary gravitas to energize a moribund peace process. For Obasanjo and Mkapa to succeed, however, the United States, the United Kingdom, and the European Union (among others) must deploy full-time, field-based senior envoys to support mediation efforts and muster the political will and resources to support a sustained and comprehensive effort to secure a lasting political solution to local, national, and international dimensions of the crisis.

The world's response to the crisis in eastern Congo, the deadliest conflict since World War II, remains largely reactive and offers civilians little evidence that their suffering will ease. The stakes right now could not be higher. A miscalculation by any of the actors involved—the Congolese government and its army, rebel leader Laurent Nkunda and the National Congress for the Defense of People, or the CNDP, regional governments involved in the conflict, and the U.N. Peacekeeping Force, or MONUC—could increase the fighting by an order of magnitude. The CNDP's late October 2008 military advance on Goma, the capital of North Kivu, grabbed international attention, but the roots of the crisis are deep. The presence in eastern Congo of the predatory Rwandan rebel group called the Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda, or FDLR, has contributed to regional conflict for 14 years. The FDLR high command includes many perpetrators of the 1994 Rwanda genocide, and the threat they pose to civilians is Nkunda's oft-stated raison d'etre for the CNDP rebellion [1 [1]].

An effective international strategy to apprehend the FDLR leadership and dismantle their militia is a critical step toward a lasting peace. Dismantling the FDLR would force the CNDP, the Congolese government, and the Rwandan government to negotiate solutions to the other major tensions driving the conflict. These include access to land, economic and physical security of ethnic minorities (particularly Tutsis), and contentious debates over citizenship, resources and identity. All parties hold deeply entrenched positions on these issues, based on various communities' legitimate and pervasive fear of subjugation. Sustained diplomacy and creative thinking are required to end the CNDP's rebellion and achieve a lasting détente between Congo and Rwanda that will assuage these fears and allows people to feel secure. Warring parties continue to reap enormous profit from the illicit trade in minerals, and international actors with an interest in Congo's future (and the stability of Great Lakes region more broadly) must finally commit to work with the Congolese government, governments in the region (particularly Rwanda), and multinational corporations to shut down the war economy, recognizing that this may entail some tough choices and equally tough diplomacy.

NIGHTMARE IN KIWANJA

On November 4 and 5, as people all over the world witnessed the historic victory of President-elect Barack Obama, Congolese civilians in Rutshuru territory, North Kivu, were running for their lives. CNDP forces had taken control of the key towns of Kiwanja and Rutshuru on October 28, securing the strategic Rutshuru axis, the major road in Rutshuru territory. But on November 4, pro-government militias, also as known as the Mai Mai, re-entered the town of Kiwanja and challenged the CNDP for control, killing several civilians in the process. During the battles that ensued, the CNDP suffered major losses but maintained their hold on Kiwanja.

What happened next is a chilling example of what war means for civilians in eastern Congo. the CNDP ordered the town's population of roughly 30,000 to leave. However, as the population fled, many men were stopped at CNDP roadblocks and told to return to Kiwanja. Then on November 5, in what is perceived as retaliation for its losses, the CNDP allegedly sought out and killed civilians, particularly young men, it accused of being members of or providing support to the Mai Mai militias. It remains unclear as to how many civilians were executed by the CNDP or caught in the cross-fire, and the CNDP officially denies deliberate attacks against civilians. When confronted by the Enough Project, one CNDP major stated, "Killing civilians is not in our vision." At least 50 civilians were killed on November 4 and 5, and perhaps scores more.

Disturbingly, Bosco "The Terminator" Ntaganda, a known hardliner within the CNDP and a wanted war criminal, was filmed by international news crews in Kiwanja on November 5. Ntaganda, Nkunda's Chief of Staff, has kept a low profile since April 2008, when the International Criminal Court, or ICC, unsealed an arrest warrant for alleged conscription of child soldiers in Ituri Province. However, a few days after his appearance in Kiwanja, Ntaganda was reportedly seen crossing the border from Rwanda into Congo. He was also present in Rwanguba when the Enough Project visited with Nkunda and other CNDP officials on November 27. The conspicuous presence of an indicted war criminal in North Kivu is another grim reminder of the state of impunity that fuels the conflict and casts serious doubts on the CNDP's commitment to a political solution.

WHAT DO THEY WANT? CALCULATIONS OF THE PARTIES

The CNDP

The January 2008 Goma ceasefire agreement and subsequent implementation plan (known as the 'Amani Program') did not satisfy CNDP's long-stated demand for genuine political dialogue with the Congolese government. Laurent Nkunda's 6,000-strong force has consistently demonstrated its military superiority over the Congolese army and MONUC has not proven a deterrent. The CNDP's late October push toward Goma was a deliberate message to the Congolese government: negotiate on political issues or else. The CNDP has also attacked MONUC peacekeepers, and Nkunda told the Enough Project that international forces siding with the government to block his advance were acceptable targets [2 [2]]. By stopping his southward push before what would almost certainly have been a bloody siege of Goma and declaring a unilateral ceasefire on October 29, the CNDP has cornered Kinshasa and forced international diplomats to go further than simply brokering a new ceasefire.

So what does the CNDP want? Nkunda has always emphasized two main demands: the removal of the FDLR from eastern Congo and the return of 45,000 Congolese Tutsi refugees from Rwanda to North Kivu. It is also clear that economic factors have played an important part in his strategic calculations as well. Whether it was bravado, gamesmanship, or a genuine change in the CNDP's political agenda, at the start of October Nkunda declared the CNDP's intention to liberate the country from what he calls Congolese President Joseph Kabila's "government of lies" with the announcement of the Movement for the Total Liberation of Congo.

Speaking in Rwanguba on November 27, 2008, Nkunda told the Enough Project that he wants U.N. Special Envoy Obasanjo to mediate talks between the Congolese government, the CNDP, and other opposition political parties throughout the country (he cited the Union for Democracy and Social Progress, or UPDS) and Movement for the Liberation of Congo, or MLC, as examples) over national issues such as democratization, reform of the army, and the status of mineral concessions granted to Chinese companies. "Kabila needs to tell us where he is bringing Congo," Nkunda told the Enough Project. However, other Congolese political parties participated in the transitional government and in the 2006 national elections. The CNDP did not, and most Congolese consider the group illegitimate. Yet, the CNDP has significant leverage and Nkunda knows it. Having established a foothold over a broad swathe of North Kivu, Nkunda continues to acquire new territory and is taking steps to set up a public administration in areas under his control. The CNDP will continue to press the Congolese government to come to the negotiating table while consolidating control in North Kivu.

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