Gershwin Wanneburg
22 December 2008
The Western Cape economy should grow by at least one to two percent in 2009, even if the rest of the country slides into recession, says the Cape Town Regional Chamber of Commerce and Industry.
Albert Schuitmaker, the chamber's executive director, said the province's economy had exceeded national growth by one percent for the past 20 years.
Going by the Treasury's estimate for gross domestic product, the Western Cape economy should grow by up to four percent in 2009 - although some economists have called the Treasury's forecast too optimistic.
Schuitmaker said the region's diverse economy put it in a better position during downward cycles, although there would still be victims of the global recession.
Clothing and textiles, for example, would see no benefit from the Chinese quotas imposed last year.
"The Western Cape economy is again likely to outperform the national economy in 2009," Schuitmaker told the Cape Argus.
"There will still be more business activity, which will result in more job opportunities, but not at a rate to make a dent in unemployment."
Schuitmaker disputed polls that showed job prospects in the Western Cape were the worst.
He argued that most job losses would occur in the mining sector, not a mainstay of the province's economy.
Sectors like tourism, construction, wine exports and call centres would be relatively immune; likewise the shi-building and oil rig repair trades in the Western Cape.
Year-on-year tourism arrivals fell by 8,6 percent in August and authorities have warned of a drop in visitors.
But Schuitmaker agrees with Cape Town Routes Unlimited that provincial tourism may still see some growth.
Construction should be supported by infrastructure projects linked to the 2010 World Cup and wine exports by burgeoning demand for cheaper wines abroad.
The same went for the local call centre business, which boomed as foreigners sought more cost-effective bases.
But the automotives and clothing and textiles industries might not be so fortunate.
"The automotive industry is likely to see negative growth during 2009; clothing and textiles definitely," he said.
He was particularly glum about the future of the latter industry - once the backbone of the Western Cape economy.
"I'm sad to say we won't see the clothing and textile industry in the Western Cape or even in SA regaining the dominant place it had 10 years ago.
"Hardly any jobs were created (by the quotas) What did happen when the quotas on China were imposed, was that importers found other countries to source from."
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