Leadership (Abuja)
29 December 2008
analysis
It is axiomatic that Guinea Conakry is presently in confusion.
Following the death of the long time dictator, Lansana Conte, the people of Guinea, rather than heave a sigh of relief and hope for a smooth transition to democratic rule that they have always longed for, they are now faced with a military dictatorship courtesy of Captain Moussa Dadis Camara who seized power in commando style coup.
According to the country's constitution, the National Assembly Speaker, Aboubacar Sompare, should be in charge until a presidential election is held within 60 days, but that has changed with the coup d'état. The army has decided out of its 'wisdom' to suspend the constitution, saying it is on a rescue mission to right the wrongs of the past before conducting a fresh election to restore democracy in the West African poverty- stricken nation.
Many analysts had predicted that the army would take over following Conte's death because he had been increasingly relying on it (the Army) to shore up his oppressive rule. The people of Guinea had over the years called for change of government. Last year, they took to the streets in a protest but Conte ordered his men to take action, and in the process over 150 people were shot dead by the police and army. In a similar protest last month in the suburbs of Conakry, another four people were killed.
It is sad that Guinea is blessed with fertile land and rich mineral deposits, including half the world's reserves of bauxite, the ore used in making aluminum; yet its economy has rapidly deteriorated and its people have remained among the poorest in the world.
It is baffling that at independence, Guinea was an exporter of food but it turned to importing food as it became more impoverished, crippled by corruption, inflation and high unemployment as a result of dictatorship and repressive rule of Conte. Conte's unpopularity was reflected in revolts by disgruntled soldiers and at least two attempts to oust him.
While some political parties were allowed to operate, many opposition leaders were either intimidated by the authorities or jailed. Conte, an authoritarian ruler for 24 years, was the country's second president. He was one of the last members of a dwindling group of so-called 'African Big Men' who came to power by the gun and resisted the democratic tide sweeping the continent.
The 1984 coup was carried out a week after the death of President Ahmed Sekou Toure, on March 26, 1984 who had ruled Guinea since the country's independence in 1958. As the post-Cold War democracy wave swept the continent, Conte formed a political party and won elections in 1993. He was re-elected in 1998 and 2003, but all the elections were fraudulent and rejected by Guinea's beleaguered opposition.
During the last election, rumours of his failing health were already circulating. He was reportedly so ill that he did not even get out of the car to cast his ballot. That winter, he went on TV to put a stop to the rumors of his death. "Everybody dies," he told the nation. "Even the Prophet died. I will die when Allah wants me to."
A similar wave of rumours began gathering force two weeks ago, when Conte failed to make his usual televised appearance on the occasion of a major Muslim holiday. The prime minister and others hurried to make appearances in his place, but people were on edge, and numerous businesses shuttered their doors in anticipation of unrest.
Recently, the editor of a local paper was arrested after publishing a picture of the frail leader struggling to stand up. The newspaper was ordered to print a photograph of Conte, showing him in good health. His state of health was never disclosed to the public despite a lot of pressure from the society until he finally gave up the ghost last week.
The self-declared president, Captain Moussa Dadis Camara had declared that the constitution has been suspended and elections would be conducted in 2010.The next few months is going to be damning for Guineans if at the end of the day Camara does not conduct elections and decide to hold on to power like his two predecessors.
This is the time Guineans should say enough is enough, no military rule and dictatorship after several years of suffering deprivation and oppressive rule.
Although Camara who earlier said elections would hold by 2010, in a recent conversation with an elder statesman, President of Senegal, Abdullahi Wade, promised that elections would hold in 8months from now. For the first time after Conte's death, Wade is the first Head of State to urge neighbours' not to interfere in Guinea's affairs either through mercenary, militarily or with money. He described Camara as a perfectly honest man who has no intention of standing elections.
With Wade's support, it is very likely that other Francophone countries would rise in support of the junta which of course will be an advantage for him. Camara has re assured the international community that he would restore order to the country and rid it of corruption. The questions now are? Will Camara keep to his promise? Will democracy be finally restored in a country that has suffered so much under military rule? Will Camara hold onto power like his predecessor, Conte? Only time will tell.
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