Hajra Omarjee
9 January 2009
Johannesburg — THE pecking order in the African National Congress (ANC) will be decided over the next few days, as the ruling party's provincial structures meet to decide on its candidates ahead of the party's national list conference next weekend.
Insiders yesterday said "no major surprises" were expected.
ANC president Jacob Zuma is expected to top the national list, followed by party deputy Kgalema Motlanthe. The provincial lists are expected to be headed by the ANC's chairmen in the respective provinces.
The ANC is expected to contest all positions in the national and provincial elections, and candidates' names will be submitted to the Independent Electoral Commission once an election date has been announced.
While popularity in the ANC will help some get on to the party's lists, Luthuli House is adamant that leadership continuity and performance will ultimately determine whether someone is appointed to office.
Speaking on the eve of the provincial list conferences, ANC secretary-general Gwede Mantashe said candidates would have to meet stringent requirements .
"We want to retain experience, ensure demographic spread, have at least 50% women and entice skilled people," Mantashe said.
Many ANC insiders fear that once the party's list process has been finalised, those who do not make the grade will jump ship, most probably to the Congress of the People (COPE).
The ANC's selection process involves intense lobbying from branch level upwards, with candidates being subjected to the scrutiny of the nominations and objections process.
The ANC list process has also been devised to include its leftist allies, who have historically been excluded from the process. The outcome of the process will give a clear indication of how influential its alliance partners -- the Congress of South African Trade Unions and the South African Communist Party -- are within the ANC's structures.
COPE insiders say that the ANC's list will be the "final nail in the coffin" for those who supported former president Thabo Mbeki's failed campaign to retain the presidency of the ruling party.
COPE has been promising high profile defections from the ANC for some time now. But promises made at COPE's launch in Bloemfontein last month that cabinet ministers and ANC provincial leaders would resign from the ruling party did not materialise.
The ANC is expected to win a large majority of seats in the National Assembly , although some analysts say it may not attain a two-thirds majority as they did in the last elections.
While the ANC controls all of SA's provincial legislatures, COPE is expected to challenge the ruling party in most provinces.
The Democratic Alliance, Independent Democrats and Inkatha Freedom Party are also playing for high stakes .
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