Daily Independent (Lagos)
Olisemeka Obeche
9 January 2009
analysis
Labour — Former President Olusegun Obasanjo may have started 2009 on a wrong footing; he traded on unfamiliar terrain-prophecy.
Though, not previously known as a prophet the ex-president took it upon himself to prophesy that the global economic recession will hit every household in Nigeria in 2009.
The Egba high chief, still basking in the euphoria of the Yuletide reportedly released the bombshell while playing host to Ogun State Governor, Gbenga Daniel at his expansive hilltop residence in Abeokuta, Ogun State.
"It does not matter which part of the world we are in, it does not matter what we produce or the level of our development, this recession will touch every one of us," he prophesied, adding that Nigerians must be "proactive and innovative" to enhance revenue from other sources.
According to Obasanjo, the global economic recession will take its toll on Nigeria and affect the inflow of foreign investments; and Nigerians need to make adjustments in their lifestyle to be able to survive the impending doomsday.
Hear him: "Five years away from now, unless something is done drastically, there will be food crisis that is monumental. It is preventable and there is no reason we should make it happen.
"If we base the budget on $45 per barrel in 2009 and the prices of crude oil fall below $40, we don't need an oracle to tell us that we need to tighten our belts. That is the outlook for the world economically and it is not too bright because whatever affects the rest of the world will affect Africa and Nigeria.
"The time has come to tell our people to adjust," he added.
Hardly had Obasanjo's advice hit the public domain when angry reactions trailed it. The public resentment against Obasanjo's message of despair ranged from sharp criticism to outright ridicule.
Action Congress (AC) described Obasanjo's comments as a "gratuitous insult to all Nigerians," even as it noted that Nigeria and its citizens will definitely be hit harder by the global recession than they ordinarily should, "due to the eight-year misrule of ex-president Obasanjo."
The party in a statement issued in Abuja by it's National Publicity Secretary, Lai Mohammed, said Nigerians do not need any advice from a man whose "lack of vision and sense of direction helped to push them into the economic and social doldrums in which they have found themselves.
"Imagine that the man who is now being sanctimonious had invested wisely in developing social infrastructure, creating jobs and enhancing the security of lives and property during his tenure.
"Imagine that the man who presided all through the years that the price of crude soared above $100 had spent wisely and helped lift our nation's economy."
According to Mohammed, Obasanjo failed woefully in his eight years in office due to a combination of "crass incompetence, sheer visionlessness and dissipation of energy on vindictiveness and frivolities.
"Now, the combination of falling crude oil prices and another incompetent, clueless leadership are sure to test the will of Nigerians as they struggle to wade through the murky waters of the global economic mess in 2009. There is no need for anyone, not least the man who frittered away our yesterday to make our tomorrow unsure, to preach to us about the tough times ahead."
Afenifere Renewal Group (ARG) lamented that Obasanjo should have been praying mea culpa in jail by now if the "the rule of law" blues which Yar'Adua's administration has been singing all the while is actually being practiced.
ARG National Publicity Secretary, Yinka Odumakin, told the media that "it is because corruption is an ongoing thing in Nigeria and that is why he (Obasanjo) is still talking.
"He is just mocking Nigeria - he should by now be answering charges on the economic crimes he committed against Nigeria and its economic crisis.
"I think Nigerians should also tell Obasanjo to prepare for hard times because when the hard times eventually come in 2009, Nigerians would remember all those who have contributed to the mess that we have found ourselves in and Obasanjo would be number one on that list and Nigerians would go after him."
The group's grouse is that under Obasanjo, "oil was selling for astronomical prices that were never expected" but he squandered everything, and now the prices have crashed and he is telling Nigerians to prepare for hard times."
Branded "the most corrupt leader Nigeria has ever had," by the Akwa Ibom State Chairman of the Action Congress (AC), David Ekanem, many rights agitators still believe that until Obasanjo accounts for the proceeds of the oil windfall, which accrued to the country between 1999 and 2007, when he was president and the minister of the petroleum, he is not fit to give advice to Nigeria.
United Action for Democracy (UAD) Convener, Abiodun Aremu said whatever hardships are ahead of Nigerians are predicated on the "harsh economic policies" of Obasanjo imposed on the country.
"Obasanjo's statement is an admission of failure of a failed state; the states with his anti-people policies on which Yar'Adua's regime is also anchored. It should be clear to Nigerians that neither Obasanjo nor his puppet can better their lots."
Campaign for Democracy (CD) President, Joe Okei-Odumakin said Obasanjo owes Nigerians explanations on why his government failed to use the oil windfall to better the lot of the citizens.
"He (Obasanjo) has a lot of explanations to make for the pains that is coming and regarding the proceeds of oil windfall during his regime that would have been a buffer in the current meltdown," Okei-Odumakin said.
Even ordinary people on the streets were not left out, as they pour venom on the two-term president.
"Imagine that man who left the country worse than he met it coming out to advise us. Let him go to hell with his wealth and power," cursed a 'Danfo' Driver, plying the Oshodi, Mile 2 Expressway, who simply identified himself as Baba K.
Though, Baba K. was not part of the discussion as he was busy maneuvering his steering, he said he could not stomach the anger of hearing that name Obasanjo. In obvious rage, he called for a stop in the discussion.
The fact that the Board of Trustees (BOT) Chairman of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) admonished already famished Nigerians, to expect harsh times by preparing for "major adjustments" in every facet of life in the New Year seemed to have annoyed many.
Perhaps, their animosity stems from the fact that, instead of issuing message of renewed hope and commitment to the building of the nation as most political statesmen did, he predicted doom to the nation and called for austerity measures.
Apart from the criticism, which trailed his sermon, the fact that what he issued from his Hilltop Villa, Abeokuta, was in sharp contrast with what came out of Aso Rock, Abuja during the festive season was puzzling. His prediction that the downturn will definitely sweep through Nigeria like a tsunami, actually contradicted the claims by Yar'Adua, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Governor, Chukwuma Soludo and other political officers that Nigeria is insulated from the global financial meltdown.
For instance, on the day that Obasanjo issued his gloom message in Abeokuta; Vice President, Goodluck Jonathan, in Abuja, also expressed hope that Nigeria will remain focused economically despite declining trends globally.
"We believe that as a nation, we would be more focused this year irrespective of the global economic recession. We wish all Nigerians a happy New Year and assure them that we will maintain the steam in a manner that will bring happiness to all," Jonathan said.
This is not the first time that Obasanjo is making such startling pronouncement. He preached a similar "belt-tightening" message following the drop in oil prices while he was military head of state in the 1970s, asking Nigerians to go back to agriculture.
The man who had at various times laid claim to being "born-again" and even professed that his second coming to power in 1999 was a divine mandate, seems to have stretched his spiritual prowess too far by adopting the toga of a prophet this time.
The fact that he has never predicted good for Nigeria may have left many Nigerians in doubt whether his message flows from God or he was acting god.
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