Sibongakonke Shoba
21 January 2009
Johannesburg — THE Congress of the People (COPE) has intensified its campaign in Eastern Cape - where its support seems strongest - while being less visible elsewhere.
This strategy, according to some analysts, could backfire in this year's elections as COPE faces the danger of being reduced to a regional party.
The party's national leadership has been holding rallies, staging motorcades and door-to-door campaigns in the province in the past few weeks, and this is expected to continue until its election manifesto launch in Port Elizabeth this weekend.
Political analyst Steven Friedman says COPE could become a regional party if it continues to put more resources in Eastern Cape while ignoring other provinces.
"In the 1999 elections, the IFP (Inkatha Freedom Party) won a majority in KwaZulu-Natal, but only won 8% nationally," he said.
Friedman says COPE has spent too much time in Eastern Cape and doubts if the party could inject the same resources to campaign in other provinces. "There is not much time left for them to make an impact in other provinces before the elections."
He says party president Mosiuoa Lekota might be popular in Free State, and his deputy Mbhazima Shilowa might enjoy support in Gauteng and Limpopo, but the problem is that they have not spent enough time campaigning in these areas.
According to COPE elections head Mlungisi Hlongwane, the party has more than 200000 registered members in Eastern Cape, compared with 30000 in KwaZulu-Natal. Overall, KwaZulu-Natal has more than 4-million registered voters compared with Eastern Cape's 2,9-million.
Prof Adam Habib also says that COPE could become a regional party if it does not intensify its campaign in other parts of SA.
"If they want to challenge the ANC in the upcoming elections they need to have a presence nationally," Habib says.
He says COPE is faced with many challenges, including the need to take its campaign to all provinces in time for the elections.
Also, funding for a national campaign is a problem. "It will depend on how deep their pockets are. How do they quantify those funds and if those businesses will continue funding them?"
He says so far, COPE policies have only differed from the African National Congress (ANC) on the electoral system and on its stance on corruption.
"But they (COPE) say they like (former president Thabo) Mbeki's policies ... they need to go beyond Mbeki's policies."
COPE needs to recruit more prominent political leaders with struggle credentials to be able to pose a threat to the ANC.
However, Dr Kwandiwe Kondlo, head of the research programme on democracy and governance at the Human Sciences Research Council, says he does not think COPE is focusing only on Eastern Cape.
"COPE is devoting lots of its resources in KZN. That is where they need to break the backbone of (ANC president) Jacob Zuma's support."
Kondlo says COPE viewed KwaZulu-Natal as its biggest challenge, and though party leaders would not admit it publicly, it has injected more resources in its campaign in that province than anywhere else.
He says COPE will cause "some serious dent" to the ANC's two-third majority. "The lowest percentage COPE could get nationally is around 9% and the highest is 18%," said Kondlo.
Hlongwane says COPE was not only focusing on Eastern Cape, but was more active in the province in preparations for the manifesto launch.
He says the campaign will move to another province. "When we go to Gauteng we will do the same thing. We want to make the most visible impact wherever we go." COPE would put the same resources it put into Eastern Cape into other provinces.
"We can't afford to ignore a province like KwaZulu-Natal, which has the second largest population (next to Gauteng). The response we received there convinced us that we cannot make that mistake."
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