Johannesburg — As campaigning for South Africa's general elections starts in earnest, fears of violence have resurfaced in the east-coast province of KwaZulu-Natal.

The province is run by the African National Congress (ANC), who won it from the Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) by a slim majority in the previous elections in 2004. Bitter feuding between the two parties in the 1980s and early 1990s left thousands of people dead.

Violence erupted on Sunday 1 February when the ANC decided to hold a rally in Nongoma, an IFP stronghold in northern KwaZulu-Natal, on the same day and in the same place as its political rival. Three ANC members were shot and injured and there were clashes between IFP supporters and the police.

The IFP's national organiser, Albert Mncwango, said the ANC had "provoked IFP supporters" by the timing of its rally. The ANC denied the allegations.

In a statement the ANC said it was asserting its democratic right to campaign and evoked the right to "freedom of speech, press and association" enshrined in the constitution. Independent violence monitor Mary de Haas warned that "violence could get worse", as the "stakes were high in these elections."

Jo-Ann Downs, leader of the opposition African Christian Democratic Party, commented: "There are real fears that the level of violence might build up closer to the elections."

Part of the reason for an increase in political temperature has been a split in the ANC after it decided to oust Thabo Mbeki from the leadership of the party late last year, leading to the formation of the Congress of the People (COPE). "This will undermine ANC's support base in the province," said de Haas.

The leadership of the ANC is in the hands of Jacob Zuma, a Zulu, which is widely regarded by analysts and opposition parties as a threat to the IFP's attempts to reclaim the province. The IFP's heartland is mainly in rural KwaZulu-Natal controlled by traditional Zulu leaders. "Zuma's support base cuts across party lines in KwaZulu-Natal," noted Aubrey Matshiqi, a political analyst.

The IFP is keen on winning total control of the province, its sole political stronghold in the country. After the first democratic elections in 1994 it had to settle for running the province jointly with the ANC to maintain peace until elections in 2004.

"There has always been a high level of intimidation in the rural areas and the province is awash with guns, and with thugs and warlords in both parties, anything can happen," said de Haas. "But it will not probably escalate to the pre-1990s level."

The Independent Electoral Commission (IEC) has condemned the violence, saying in a statement that it was "dismayed by the signs of disregard for the freedom of association and the right to assemble for political campaigning" in KwaZulu-Natal.

Any party should have the right to hold rallies in a democracy; perhaps "we are still a growing democracy and we have not reached that level of tolerance and maturity," said Matshiqi.

Political parties across the ideological spectrum in KwaZulu-Natal have their hopes pinned on peace. "I think it is just a bit of huffing and puffing before the elections and peace will prevail during the elections," said Tino Volker, a former New National Party member, who until recently was the longest-serving legislator in the province.

Neither of the parties wants a rerun of the pre-1990s. "We don't want to slip back to that," said Mncwango.

ANC national spokesman Carl Niehaus said in a statement that the party had never used violence in the past, and "did not need to so in the 2009 elections."

[ This report does not necessarily reflect the views of the United Nations ]