Johannesburg — THE South African Institute of Race Relations (SAIRR) has played down the chances of high-intensity election violence during this year's polls, saying tolerance had improved since 1994.

Some analysts and political parties have raised fears that political violence could spiral out of control after members of the Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) allegedly attacked African National Congress (ANC) supporters in Nongoma in KwaZulu-Natal at the weekend.

The Congress of the People (COPE) has accused the ANC of disrupting some of its meetings.

SAIRR deputy CEO Frans Cronje yesterday said the institute had tracked political violence in SA from the 1970s to the late 1990s and could authoritatively say the alleged events did not amount to a crisis and were unlikely to escalate into one.

"It is evident that relative to circumstances just 15 years ago, there has been a marked improvement in conditions for political tolerance. Despite isolated incidents, there is no discernable pattern to suggest that these elections will become violent.

"Fifteen years ago, if the ANC and the IFP had held simultaneous rallies in Nongoma, the outcome would have been very different," he said.

Cronje said that instead of threatening to restrict campaign activity, the Independent Electoral Commission (IEC) should work with parties, the police and the army to ensure enough manpower was deployed to prevent violence.

KwaZulu-Natal IEC head Mawethu Mosery has warned that political parties found to have violated an election code of conduct by involving themselves in the killing and intimidation of opponents would be hauled before an electoral court which would have the power to suspend guilty parties from campaigning and could even ban them from the election.

The ANC has handed a dossier to the IEC on the Nongoma attacks, calling for action against the IFP.

IFP leader Mangosuthu Buthe-lezi has denied that IFP supporters were responsible for the attacks, blaming the police instead. But the IFP Youth Brigade issued a statement yesterday warning ANC Youth League president Julius Malema not to campaign in Nongoma -- "Buthelezi's back yard". IFP Youth Brigade spokeswoman Thulasizwe Buthelezi said: "Julius Malema must come. He will arrive at Nongoma and find boys his own age who will teach him what happens to a loud-mouthed chatterbox imbecile. We also send a sharp warning to the ANC that they must not cry foul when IFP members react to their provocation."