Windhoek — As the 2009 election fever picks up, a report ventures into the prospects of political parties on the Namibian landscape.

With the formation of new political parties last year, the possibility of breaking the "effective monopoly" of voters from the north-central regions where Swapo Party has held sway since independence, might be real, suggested the Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR).

These parties, said IPPR, also challenge the longstanding opposition parties.

Moreover, it said, the new parties stand to receive votes reallocated from different ethnic identities and populations allied to existing opposition parties, or from those who have fallen out of election participation.

Professor Andre du Pisani and William Lindeke in their paper 'Political Party Life in Namibia: Dominant Party with Democratic Consolidation' suggest that the Swapo Party has remained the dominant party since 1990 due to the "extended independence honeymoon" benefiting and sustaining the ruling party, the "relatively new effective governance" of Namibia by the ruling party, and the policy choices and political behaviour of the ruling and opposition parties.

Opposition parties have held less than 30 percent of the vote since the United Nations'supervised independence election in 1989.

Du Pisani and Lindeke said despite the revival of older parties and the appearance of new ones, the fate of the opposition has not improved with uncertain prospects.

The weakness of opposition parties, they suggested, could be as a result of Namibia's independence struggle that elevated the status of Swapo in 1976 to the "sole and authentic" representative of the Namibian people by the United Nations with support from the Organisation of African Union, the Non-Aligned Movement and the Frontline States of southern Africa.

But, indications are that a significant number of voters are "undecided" over their choices in the 2009 elections, which could throw the results more open than during previous elections.

The IPPR's recently released Afrobarometer focusing on the prospects for parties leading up to the National Assembly and Presidential elections, gives a national picture of potential party support, from data collected in November last year of 1200 people in face-to-face interviews in five languages.

The survey showed a 50 percent preference for a Swapo Party presidential candidate, with a 25 percent to opposition parties; a further 25 percent of the respondents were undecided.

This is an indication that small opposition parties would have difficulty to garner support - at least for a nod for a presidential candidate.

But, a suggestion is that these parties might fare better in local and regional elections because their support base is more concentrated in regional constituencies and local communities.

"These smaller parties may provide opportunities for coalition building in national elections," the Afrobarometer suggested, as this would conform to longstanding practices of coalition and splintering among Namibian parties.

But results showed that there is a high voter-interest. Only 10 percent said they are undecided about whether or not they would vote, and seven percent said they would not vote.

These results suggest that smaller parties would have to depend on the "lowest remainder" allocation of votes to gain at least one seat in the 72-member National Assembly without the minimum votes.

"Symbolic importance and public credibility, as well as access to public funding, are at stake for these minor players in the dominant-party system," said the report.

What emerges from the respondents is that the Swapo Party appears to retain its dominant position, and it will in all likelihood still hold on to its near monopoly over the predominantly Owambo-speaking north-central regions, where it got 90 percent of the votes in the last election.

Another indication is that the recently formed Rally for Democracy and Progress (RDP) is likely to become the new official opposition - possibly as a result of the damaging and costly discord in the ranks of the Congress of Democrats (CoD) leadership ranks. The Democratic Turnhalle Alliance (DTA) is said to "survive" as a "viable" party.

The regions also showed a strong Swapo Party preference of 40 percent, except in the Otjozondjupa Region where its preference was at 20 percent. Here, it is suggested, Herero-based parties are anticipated to do better.

Respondents also showed a high degree of trust in the ruling Swapo Party, a sentiment that fits in well with that experienced in other southern African countries, with the exception of Zimbabwe, Zambia and Malawi. This is also a general trend in democracies all over the globe.

However, feelings of trust in Namibian opposition parties have picked up steadily, and this is ascribed to growing democratic maturity. In fact, it shows that Namibia ranks in the middle of African experiences of trust in opposition parties.

Collectively, opposition parties are increasing their support base slightly, but the number of people identifying with the ruling party has declined from 2006 indications.

The report further showed that Swapo Party "under-performs" among voters between the ages of 18 and 34 - the biggest voting demographic - compared to 50 percent of respondents nationally who said they "feel close" to the ruling party.

Older parties like NUDO of Namibia and the DTA also appeal more with older voters, while the RDP did poorly among older voters.

The RDP fared better among the age group between 18 and 44 years of age.

An argument derived from these figures is that the urban (36 percent), female and younger (43 percent) voters symbolise a growing challenge to the ruling party's election dominance in terms of "closeness" to it.

This, suggested the Afrobarometer, could be due to the high visibility of the youth and other affiliate organisations in recent years.

"The core support for the ruling party primarily remains older, rural, and respondents with less education, especially from the north-central areas," said the report.

As Namibians become more educated and urban, ties to the ruling party appear to weaken and people become more apolitical.

Those respondents who said they do not feel close to any particular political parties indicated that they would possibly still vote in the upcoming elections.

This identification with political parties, said IPPR, appears to be moving towards the more typical African experiences, and are comparable to that in South Africa and Botswana.

Du Pisani and Lindeke said Namibia, alongside Botswana and South Africa, presents a paradox in terms of political party systems in southern Africa.

"These countries with around 40 competitive elections among them have both the most robust, open democracies in Africa and a sustained one-party dominance."

This one-party dominance - as also seen with the African National Congress in South Africa and the Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) - have "constitution-changing super majorities" from two-thirds to three-fourths.

Opposition parties seem marginal, but important political players, even if they are not in the "government-in-waiting" positions, as can be seen in more consolidated democracies like the United States.

There was a further indication of a considerable "swing vote" among opposition voters, or voters who may vote for another party despite their closeness to another, that could possibly have a "bandwagon" effect.

Within such a context, suggested the report, Namibian political parties should focus heavily on mobilising their core supporters and persuade the substantial "undecided" voters.

The survey shows that Namibia remains one of the better performing democracies, confirming global measures like the World Bank and Mo Ibrahim indexes.

But, like other southern African countries, it continues to show a popular, dominant party preference, with opposition parties multiply as they splinter, although they may still pose growing competition to the incumbent big parties.

"It would be tragic if increased party competition, which is healthy for a democracy, should somehow undermine the hard-won peace, stability and democracy that Namibia has enjoyed all these years," said the IPPR.

"It does not seem to be the wish of the vast majority of Namibians."