Ay Barbara Among
13 March 2009
analysis
Kampala — EXACTLY three months ago, UPDF jet fighters roared over Garamba forest, unleashing blitz on several Lord's Resistance Army (LRA) rebel camps, scattering them. The December 14, 2008, military offensive code named Operation Lightning Thunder, directed by Uganda army, aimed at finishing the rebels.
At least six soldiers have been killed, one jet fighter down, 150 rebels killed, five LRA commanders captured, 300 abductees rescued and 400 civilians during the operation.
Ugandan, Southern Sudan and DR Congo forces, said the offensive has been successful and the rebel group is "in its evening." What had been planned as a strike to dismantle the rebel's command, 90 days later, has turned into a search-and-destroy mission.
From one battalion and a few jet fighters, many more truckloads of soldiers and supplies are being ferried to the frontlines. The war plan too is being evaluated at various tactical headquarters to achieve the ultimate objective - kill or capture rebel leader Joseph Kony and his top commanders.
Last week, the troops captured LRA number four and killed another top commander. In addition, three lieutenants captured and rescued 16 abductees in four days. These achievements appear to buoy Ugandan army that they could be getting closer to Kony who has eluded capture in previous raids.
State House, in a statement, quoted Museveni as having said: "The killing of Kony's commanders and the recent arrest of LRA's number four (Thomas Kwoyelo), should teach Kony that he cannot win the war and his only alternative is to opt for peace."
LRA field operations commander, Col. Thomas Kwoyelo, understood to be the LRA fourth-in-command, is the most senior LRA commander to be captured by UPDF during Operation Lightning Thunder.
Attrition
The operations coupled with recent defections have dealt a blow to the LRA, which the army and some political analysts believe is sending the group to its grave. President Yoweri Museveni told the BBC's Focus on Africa programme recently, it was a campaign of attrition and promised Kony would be caught.
"When you are dealing with this type of group, you are not fighting -- it is more like hunting. When you are hunting... a cockroach, its best weapon is flight and concealment. Our aim is to counteract those. We have caught 90 [rebels]. That is almost one fifth of their group."
Isolation of Kony
The LRA use diversionary tactics to draw attention away from its leader. The capture and death of some of his commanders and fighters is poised to be a serious setback for the rebel leader, as it deprives him of diversionary troops.
Currently, LRA commanders Bok Abudema is rumoured to be dead, Dominc Ogwen in close to Central Frican Republic (CAR) border and Okeny Opwa is close to southern Sudan-DR Congo border. Kony is criss-crossing between these places. It was also reported that Odhiambo is in a critical condition, suffering from gout and probably injured during December 14 raids.
Kony is reported to have lost important means of communication by radio and satellite phones and this could further weaken his forces. The LRA rebel leader and his commanders have abandoned their satellite phones and walkie-talkies for fear of being tracked. Another dilemma for the rebel leader is that his fighters are scattered and could be vulnerable to the UPDF as small groups.
His possible escape to southern Sudan or the CAR could however lay him bare. In southern Sudan or CAR, the ground troops would also be able to move fast compared to the difficult Garamba terrain. The army claims it has crippled the rebel group by killing 150 of its fighters, destroyed its operation base and cut food supply. Arms, hi-tech communication gadgets and laptops have reportedly been recovered.
It has also managed to contain the insurgents from the killing spree that went on during Christmas. This has lent credibility to the anti-LRA offensive that has attracted criticism from some local and international politicians and humanitarian bodies. The capture of Col. Kwoyelo, military sources believe, could deal a big blow to the rebel group.
"With our information, Kony, (Okot) Odhiambo and (Dominic) Ongwen are not far from our arch of fire and we shall call it a day," said Capt Deo Akiiki, operation spokesman. LRA commanders killed so far are Col. Okello Yape, Maj. Opori Okello, Lt. Simon Opio, three second lieutenants and one yet to be identified, who was killed last week in Duru.
Keen LRA watchers argue that the combination of imminent starvation following the air strikes, that razed down large gardens of food and the cut line of supply from Caritas and the threat by the UPDF, could force LRA to surrender or sign the peace deal before it is too late. But what is clear is that the LRA faces an imminent split, between those who feel it is time to surrender, given the recent influx of defection and those who wish to continue fighting.
Regional problem
It is, however, argued that Kony's capture might depend on whether the current regional alliance can hold. Regional governments, under the tripartite agreement sponsored by US, agreed to work jointly to eliminate the rebels.
The agreement has held between Rwanda and DR Congo, where it granted Rwanda a one month period to pursue rebel forces operating in northeastern DR Congo. It has also largely held between Uganda and DR Congo given that the two have thrice extended the operation deadline to get rid of Kony.
The Congolese government has turned much attention to Kony after him killing hundreds of civilians in DR Congo during Christmas.
The LRA also remains a potential threat to the government of Southern Sudan (GoSS), whose elections are due end of this year. If GoSS suspects that the authorities in Khartoum will back the LRA again as a mercenary force to destabilise Southern Sudan, it could provoke the Sudan People's Liberation Army (SPLA) into getting serious about the LRA.
South Sudan's involvement is, however, expected to grow more, because the US, south Sudan's patron, has long urged three-way action -- by the Ugandans, the Congolese, and the south Sudanese against the LRA.
It is also hoped that the ICC arrest warrant hanging over Khartoum's head, the said interest in keeping in touch with Kony could end. Khartoum needs regional allies more than ever before and this would force it to drop its support for the rebel group.
Civilian death toll
Pessimists argue that several times in the past, Ugandans have been promised that Kony would soon be history, but to date the LRA still exists. However, Operation Lightning Thunder has so far been the most effective offensive against the LRA. This, however, has not stopped a number of humanitarian bodies from reacting angrily to the operation on grounds of the civilian death toll.
The UN agencies, have reported that the civilian toll from the rebel raids had reached 600 with over 700 other people abducted. Some 104,000 people have been displaced.
The rampaging rebels have prompted the Bishop of Western Equatoria State in South Sudan, which is adversely affected by the violence, to petition the British Prime minister Gordon Brown, to bring to halt the horrific LRA raids.
Clearly, the best relief would have been for the Operation Lightning Thunder to capture or kill LRA leaders, especially Kony. This would have brought LRA to its knees and created opportunities for disintegration of the group and the reintegration of rebels and abductees into their communities. This is yet to happen.
The second best scenario would be failing to hit Kony, but succeeding in damaging the LRA capacity and provoking their defections. This would provide a chance of defeating rebels that know the jungles better than the UPDF.
However, it would be unwise to underestimate Kony's capacity in this setting. He has been in the bush for more than 20 years and knows his way around. He has badly beaten his foes before (including eight UN peacekeepers who lost their lives in the jungles of DRC in 2006), and perhaps most importantly, he has nothing to lose and will stop at nothing to ensure his survival. A drawn out military expedition against the LRA will require more men to stay longer inside the Congo.
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Only those who stood on the truth will survive. Those with false propagandas may only prolong the suffering of innocent people, through military support of outsiders. That was true for ‘Field Marshal Amin’ the Life president of Uganda, Mengistu of Ethiopia., and Saddam Hussein of Iraq or Said Bare of Somalia or Charles Taylor of Liberia. The Eritrean people, The Kurds of Iraq and the people of Somaliland liberated themselves from their dictators. There are no doubt the people of Anchole and Lange in northern Uganda will gain their freedom.
Only those who stood on the truth will survive. Those with false propagandas may only prolong the suffering of innocent people, through military support of outsiders. That was true for ‘Field Marshal Amin’ the Life president of Uganda, Mengistu of Ethiopia., and Saddam Hussein of Iraq or Said Bare of Somalia or Charles Taylor of Liberia. The Eritrean people, The Kurds of Iraq and the people of Somaliland liberated themselves from their dictators. There are no doubt the people of Anchole and Lange in northern Uganda will gain their freedom.
Museveni is among the ghost president , the most stupid ever see, a zombie and thug , but his days are counted I tell you he is the enemy of peace and developement he is nothing , loose , careless, irressiponsible and a western puppet He has killed the nothern ugandan people and he's still opressing his people He has to think why Kony is fighting and the fate of the ugandan gov't Nomonating his wife as a minister , just a mere secretary typist , ha ha ha ,shame on him he'll never win the war against LRA ,… [Read Full Text]
That Demon Kony is finally being hunted down, and with great cooperation among neighbors, is great news for anyone with even a modicum of decency and moral rectitude. That anyone could actually be blaming the government for his heinous atrocities over decades is either the apex of absurdity, or the comments of the most tribalist and racist organization that has ever been known. I know now that anything put forth by the Acholi Parliamentary Group must have base, ungodly genocidaires, as its authors.
Suggestion for those that recognize the evil of he madmen who run the “LRA” and what kind… [Read Full Text]