Botswana: Africa's Growth to Slow by Half, Says Mogae

opinion

The numbers are out and they make for painful reading: growth in Africa is likely to slow by nearly half in 2009 due to the spreading global financial crisis.

It would be a grave error to read the International Monetary Fund (IMF) figures projecting that expansion of African economies will fall from 6 per cent to 3.5 per cent as cold statistics.

Rather, every percentage fall in growth means reduction in budget allocations which will keep millions of children out of school, deny health care to those who most need it and hold up infrastructure projects that are so vital to the continent's economic future.

World Bank research which indicates that the dramatic contraction of the global economy is trapping up to 53 million more people in poverty is instructive.

Perhaps the only positive to be gleaned out of the slowdown is that it might serve as a wake-up call for both developed nations and Africa.

There is broad consensus that the crisis is the result of a failure of regulation, particularly in the US. It is to be hoped the severity of the problem will see leaders in developed economies exercise greater responsibility because failure at home has global consequences.

Africa, too, must learn from this episode and find ways of insulating its domestic markets from the most severe effects of a sudden drop in demand for primary commodities abroad.

One way forward is closer regional integration. As we have learnt in Botswana, investors from wealthier nations are principally attracted to large domestic markets on the continent. Although we lowered taxes, reformed our laws and got attractive credit ratings, we still mostly received greater investment in extractive industries, not quite the diversified capital inflow we hoped for. Speedier integration in most parts of the continent would change that.

Greater coherence in the governance of regional bodies and more open communication channels would also be beneficial. The situation where you have food deficit on one part of the continent and surplus in another illustrates the untapped economic synergies that can spur growth.

This is not to understate the importance of reforms to the international financial architecture. Indeed, there should be a greater sense of urgency on this score. Engagement between the IMF and Africa must no longer be a one-way street. Because the continent receives development assistance - and because of the fact the IMF holds greatest sway over countries in debt or those receiving aid - governments on the continent are subjected to inordinate pressure while their representation in the governance structure of the body is regrettably low. It is to be hoped the UN High Level Task Force on the Financial System will factor this into their final recommendations.

The unfortunate reality for Africa is that before the crisis eases, policymakers in developed countries will necessarily focus on the needs of their domestic constituencies. This means leaders on the continent must shoulder the dual burden of emphasising the importance of maintaining growth while simultaneously speeding up the pace of reform to ensure the progress achieved over the last few years is not lost.

Festus Mogae is the former President of Botswana.


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