Africa Progress Panel (Geneva)
Simon Maxwell
27 March 2009
opinion
Africa is not watching from the sidelines as the global crisis unfolds.
Export volumes and prices are down. Tourist bookings are evaporating.
Remittances are falling. Foreign direct investment is fleeing. Aid is at risk.
Comparing growth estimates made at the beginning of last year with those made at the end, Africa is set to lose about U.S.$40bn in GDP in 2009: that is equivalent to nearly two weeks' worth of income lost for every single one of Africa's 900 million women, men and children. And growth estimates are still falling as the crisis deepens.
The pain will not be spread equally in Africa. Zambia, for example, is struggling with a 40 per cent fall in copper prices. Kenya has seen both visitor numbers decline by 30 per cent and remittances by 40 per cent.
The most vulnerable countries are those with the greatest exposure to these transmission belts, but also with weak Balance of Payments and budget positions. Globalisation has been a rising tide which has lifted many boats - but when the tsunami comes, only the most seaworthy will survive.
What is true for countries is also true for people. Many Africans were hit hard in 2008 by rising food and fuel prices. With diets already stretched, and resources eroded, the numbers below the poverty line will increase, with long-term consequences. Remember, hunger is corrosive of long-term life chances: it undermines the ability to grow, to learn, to stay healthy and to earn. Nearly one third of Africa's children are malnourished.
African countries and people are used to weathering shocks. Drought is all too familiar. This shock will be different, however, and the politics too. The first to suffer this time will not be rural people, far from the capital city, losing crops and animals, and often children, to the lack of rain. Instead, jobs will be lost in towns, amongst the vocal and educated. There were food riots in Africa last year. Tension is rising around the world. Will there be job riots in Africa in 2009?
Wise leaders will prepare. Their populations will need to stand together. Minimum living standards will need to be guaranteed. Key investments in health and education will need to be protected. New conversations will be needed between leaders and their peoples, and new budgets, new policies written.
Africa must also make sure its voice is heard internationally. It will not be enough to deliver aid pledges made at the G8, the European Council, the MDG Call to Action or the Financing for Development Conference. That is already a challenge, with donors collectively falling $US30bn behind the target set for 2010. More money will be needed to manage the recession. No doubt, a trade deal would be useful, too, not least to help hold the line against further protectionism as pressure mounts to support failing factories across the developed world.
The G20 promised a trade deal by Christmas, but failed to deliver. It will have to do better when it meets in April in London. But will Africa have sufficient leverage at the G20 with only South Africa at the table?
A final thought. Can Africa be part of the solution, a growth centre and a stimulus to the world economy? More money for infrastructure will create jobs in Africa, but also markets for developed countries.
Investment in cost-effective and environmentally sustainable biofuels in Africa will reduce dependence on oil and pressure on climate. Africa can be a haven for investment funds in well- regulated and profitable emerging markets. Africa is not watching from the sidelines. It can be leading on the field of play.
Simon Maxwell is the former director of the Overseas Development Institute, a British think tank on international development and humanitarian issues.
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Perhaps Mr. Annan could learn from a non-African - President Lula of Brazil who spoke more candidly on behalf of all the poorer people of our world, standing next to Gordon Brown this morning. Enough of this cap-in-hand pleading for more aid instead of fairer trade. Is that too much to ask for? For Mr. Lula’s comment, see: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/politics/7964910.stm.
For the ordinary african in 'subsaharan Africa, live has never been easy even before the economic recession from the 'north' does he have a good road, good health care for his family, water and nutrition, free and quality education for his kids, good shelter instead of live in slums and secure future, who is thinking about him, what are the goals of leaders in sub-saharan africa anyway, where are they when countries like, Indonesia, Malasia, etc, where developing. He has not known any better so the recession means nothing to him, excepts the leaders who's windwall from the north will dry up as a result.
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