As a section of powerful and influential politicians from the north continue to signal their disapproval of a second term for President Umar Yar'Adua, the President's loyalists are also rallying to ward off any form of opposition to the presidential aspiration. This report presents why some people do not want the return of Yar'Adua, the power play going on and why anything can happen in 2011.

For a geo-political zone adept at strategically outsmarting other zones, the North is becoming desperate; and it is obvious. After two years of President Umar Yar'Adua, the Mutawalin'Katsina, the north is yet to come to terms with what has hit it. For a former state governor who simply decided to go to the classroom and become a lecturer, but was foisted, first on the PDP, by former President Olusegun Obasanjo, the Yar'Adua presidency, in more ways than most would want to agree, it is un-northern-like.

If emerging signals are anything to go by, those preempting the 2011 presidential race, insisting that Yar'Adua would seek re-nomination may just be embarking on a fools' errand as the decision to seek re-nomination is based on two simple factors: God's kindness and President Yar'Adua believing that he can suffer another four years of restlessness in grappling with the complexities of the Nigerian nation.

Yet, even if he would not seek re-election, it would only be unwise to let that out now. The consequences of such a revelation would be grave on the polity. Ministers would engage one another in needless succession battles, state governors would heighten the tempo of their crisis of attrition. Many more funny things could and would happen.

But just 10 years ago, it was the same north which foisted Obasanjo on Nigeria.

The Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, Northern Caucus scheduled a meeting for Agura Hotel, Abuja, on February, 10, 1999. The meeting was to decide the party's presidential candidate. The caucus meeting had 23 people in attendance. The chairman was Alhaji Lawal Kaita. Among those in attendance were Professor Jubril Aminu, Alhaji Adamu Ciroma. There were also Alhaji Mohammed Lawan and Senator Yusuf Mohammed - both have since died. Typically of most political meetings, it started at 10 p.m.

President Umaru Yar'Adua with VP Jonathan in tow

At the meeting, just three days to the Jos Convention, all the presidential aspirants were expected to make a last minute shadow bid by signing a document expected to bind whoever emerged to doing the bidding of the north. Don Etiebet, Alabo Graham-Douglas, Francis Ellah of blessed memory, Jim Nwobodo, Alex Ekwueme and, of course, Obasanjo, were expected.

According to the minutes Obasanjo read out, Etiebet was the first to arrive; he had no problem signing. They called him the dark horse, an underdog. He said that in fact he was a northerner himself. He promptly signed the document without asking any questions.

Obasanjo continued: "Alex Ekwueme, he was careful in his appraisal of the document. He was legalistic and academic in his approach. He reminded the caucus that he served for four years under Shehu Shagari and did not show any trace of disloyalty while serving with Shagari. He said he had no problem with the preamble to the compendium. He was told that he was at liberty to remove or add whatever he wanted to it.

"Alex Ekwueme, this is what they wrote about him, "he would abide by the constitution and that he would not allow a northerner to head the army and police as well as defence and petroleum but submitted that he would not wantonly revise any project(s) that were of interest to the North (and that he did not have any problem with it). Jim Nwobodo, he had no problem in signing.

"Now, let me read what they wrote about Olusegun Obasanjo, 'we told him we were representing the Northern interest. We tried in vain to convince him to sign the document. He said he was not happy about negotiating or signing a document with the North before the North would support him. He relied on the sincerity of purpose and his track record of performance. He reminded us that when he became military head of state after Gen. Murtala Muhammed died, he did not injure any interest of the North or molest any northerner in the public service, which he inherited; he respected the northerners he worked with and prosecuted all projects that were of vital interest to the North, including the transfer of the capital from Lagos to Abuja: the steel project in Ajaokuta, Katsina, Jos, Okene; the vehicle assembly plant in Kaduna, Kano and Bauchi; the Ashaka Cement factory in Gombe, Jebba/Shiroro Hydro Electric Power; Bakassi Irrigation Dam, and others.

"He gave us three conditions for signing the documents. First, that we should make it public (which they refused). Two, he should be free to sign similar documents with other sections of the country too, including the minorities (I said if you give me the northern agenda, I would get eastern agenda and I would put them together and sign them). That he would only discuss the document with us and agree with it verbally, if necessary, to avoid being misunderstood."

Obasanjo then explained to those present, including Sunday Vanguard, that "anybody who signed that would be a figurehead president and the vice president would be the president. And there is no way I would have signed such a document. I didn't sign it".

The week of the revelation, specifically Monday, September 30, 2002, Ekwueme and Graham-Douglas came out to deny signing the document. But the fact that there was a document was not totally in doubt. They settled for Obasanjo.

That was how the North imposed Obasanjo on Nigeria in 1999. He became president and the rest is history.

North's Concern

Those chanting the mantra of "No Second Term for Yar'Adua" may, on the surface insinuate altruism into their campaign.

However, a mild scratch would show that altruism is just in a funny mix with some other considerations.

First was the privatization programme of Obasanjo. It had been expected that Yar'Adua would reverse the process. And whereas Yar'Adua buckled under pressure and has since reversed the privatization of the refineries, the north is not particularly comfortable with the manner of his engagement. Obasanjo had engaged a concession process for the ports which appears to be yielding results but for the recent congestion.

The unbundling of PHCN, and that of the Nigeria National Petroleum Corporation, NNPC, are some of the policies that Yar'Adua may end up having no option but to consolidate on.

Before Yar'Adua, the north had expected such policies to be reversed since power was shifting to the north.

Most embarrassing for the north was the Obasanjo banks consolidation which left the north holding just one bank in its name. Attempts made clandestinely to introduce policies that would create a backroom access to ownership of banks have been rebuffed by the Yar'Adua administration, much to the chagrin of the north.

And then there is the issue of patronage which has left the north in limbo. Not that the north has particularly been the beast of burden on the Nigerian nation, the reality on ground is such that there is a disconnect between the aspirations of the south and those of the north.

Which explains why President Yar'Adua's major problem is his ability (or lack of) balancing the developmental agenda of his administration with the needs of some influential political figures in the north. Striking that delicate compromise position is what continues to bug his administration.

On the part of those who appear genuinely concerned, there is the fear that the last two years of Yar'Adua has not recorded noticeable achievements. They further contend that if the last two years are anything to go by, then Nigeria is in for a long spell of redundancy.

Add to that the fact that critics in some quarters are already playing the blame game, insisting that nothing good was ever expected to come from a Yar'Adua presidency.

For prominent leaders from the north like Ibrahim Babangida, Theophilus Danjuma, Muhammadu Buhari, their concern is that it is increasingly being taken for a fact that nothing good can come from the north, judging from the governance mode of the last two years.

Some even point to the 7-point agenda as a ruse. For instance, there is yet a blue-print for the famous 7-point agenda. Preachments which border so much on precepts but Nigerians are still waiting for the realisation of the agenda.

It was this which made Alhaji Iro Dan Musa to complain that if Yar'Adua spends two years in planning, when will he deliver? See Dan Musa's interview.

In fact, Alhaji Lai Mohammed, Action Congress, AC, Publicity Secretary, in an interview with Sunday Vanguard last week pooh-poohed the 7-point agenda. He said those insisting that Yar'Adua must rule for eight years because his 7-point agenda requires eight-year tenure, were missing the point. He said the nonsensical nature of the suggestion lies in the fact that should he, Lai Mohammed, have a 12-point agenda, then he would require 15 years to actualize it.

Therefore, when the north complains about Yar'Adua not doing the North's bidding, they are simply saying the last two years have been wasted on behalf of the north.

In fact, the permutation now is that should another candidate emerge as president in 2011, such a person would be able to spend his own two terms afresh.

Now, the Atiku/Govs Angle

In all of these however, there is the issue of former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and his possible return to his first love, the PDP. But even in this, there is a trajectory between Yar'Adua's possible second term and Atiku's return to the party.

There are those who insist that Atiku has no business returning to the PDP.

For the hawks who do not see any fancy in Atiku's return to the PDP, they readily point to the fact that the same PDP which he had vilified in the past remains the same and that nothing has changed.

Their position is that a return of Atiku to PDP would make nonsense of all that he claimed to stand for and for which he parted ways with the leadership of the party

Sunday Vanguard was reliably informed by sources very close to the former Vice President that Atiku is still weighing his options as the pressure on him from the pro and anti groups is such that meetings are being held on a daily basis on the issue.

Those within his political family who insist that he has nothing to achieve by rushing back to the PDP maintain that unless the Yar'Adua government engages a true reform agenda for Nigeria's electoral process, a return to PDP is meaningless.

His associates say unless the electoral process is reformed an Atiku return to PDP would do nothing but "present the former Vice President as an individual without scruples and one who has a vaulting ambition".

But Sunday Vanguard was reliably told that the bulk of those who are eager to welcome Atiku back to the PDP are made up of most of the former governors on the platform of the party, as well as a sizeable number of the present crop of PDP governors.

The governors are already working with a view to welcoming Atiku back to the party.

This is because, according to one of them, "Atiku was one of the founding leaders of this party and a return of such a prominent and popular personality would inject more life to the party.

A state governor told Sunday Vanguard that "a return of an Atiku to our party would pour cold water on the opposition which is more content in just using his name for their own mischief"

The governors and leaders of the party rooting for Atiku's return are also insisting that in the area of electoral reforms, the former Vice President stands a better chance of engendering a reform process from within as a member and leader of the party than staying outside.

Such a process of internal democracy, they maintain, could then be translated on a larger scale to the entire polity for the benefit of Nigerians.

But holes are quickly punched into this line of argument by some others, still within the same Atiku camp, that the former Vice President has been a victim of grand betrayal twice by a crop of PDP governors - first, just before the 2003 primaries of the PDP and, second, during Atiku's bid to contest the 2007 presidential elections.

The governors are already divided into camps for Yar'Adua and some for Atiku's return to the party.

Meanwhile, there is the funny angle of one of the governors in the North East geo-political zone coming into the fray. He is an in-law to the Yar'Adua's. Move are already being made to draft him into the race in the event that President Yar'Adua does not seek re-election. In fact, his recent marriage to the President's daughter is seen as one of the permutations in the unfolding drama.

Obasanjo Gets Even: What Goes Round Comes Round

Fast forward, to 2006. After the failure of Obasanjo's Third Term agenda, it was time for politicians to come out and express aspiration for the presidency. Until the failure of that gambit, even those with presidential ambition could not come out in the open. But once Third Term failed, presidential aspirants began to surface.

This time, however, Obasanjo had his own agenda. He understood the enormity of the powers at his beck. He knew how to wield and deploy it.

In his political party, the PDP, Obasanjo ensured that those who could create electoral deficit for whoever he chose as presidential candidate were dealt with.

With the instrumentality of the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission, EFCC, Obasanjo began his own screening process. Those he did not want began having questions to answer. But as 2006 was coming to an end, some governors on the platform of the party presented (in fact, they sold)Yar'Adua to Obasanjo.

For reasons including, but not limited to, stories of Yar'Adua's exploits as Katsina State governor and the fact that Umar was a younger brother of Shehu Musa Yar'Adua, The senior Yar'Adua was Obasanjo's Chief of Staff Supreme Headquarters between 1976 and 1979.

Until Obasanjo agreed to bankroll and power-play Yar'Adua's candidacy in 2007, little was known about Umar Yar'Adua. Even amongst his governor-colleagues, he was considered a recluse. For a man who governed the seemingly sleepy state of Katsina to now be saddled with the complexities of the Nigerian nation was not only incredulous but indecipherable. But Obasanjo imposed Yar'Adua on the PDP and the latter went on to win the Presidential elections which has since been confirmed by the Supreme Court.

But the north is complaining today that the man Obasanjo imposed on the nation is not up and doing - but that is relative in some context.

The real issue is that Obasanjo may have gotten even with the north. The north it was that imposed Obasanjo as the South West candidate. He was considered an eight year waste for both the Soiuth West and the nation - that is relative though. Obasanjo, in turn, imposed Yar'Adua as the Northern candidate.

One good turn deserves another.