Johannesburg — INVESTORS will be anxious this week to see whether the best four-week winning streak on US markets since 1933 will continue -- paving the way for other world markets to rise.
US stocks rose in late trade on Friday, buoyed by comments of Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke, who said the central bank would do everything it could to stabilise banks. Growing conviction that the worst is over for the economy helped Wall Street shrug off poor jobs data showing the highest unemployment rate since 1983. The US labour department reported that unemployment leapt to a new 25-year high of 8,5% last month as employers shed another 663000 jobs.
The Dow Jones index's 0,5% move higher came too late to save the JSE and European markets, which ended lower. In London, the FTSE 100 index dropped 2,4%.
The JSE's all share index shed 1% to 21195, as gold shares fell 8% after the gold price weakened to $891/oz . AngloGold shed 9%, Gold Fields fell 5,7% and Harmony dropped 10,3%. The rand strengthened to R8,99/$, before ending at R9,05.
PSG Konsult stockbroker Drikus Combrinck said that following a strong rise in equities on Wednesday and Thursday, investors had taken profits on Friday. He said that with the financial crisis showing signs of subsiding, the focus would now fall on economic recovery.
Manufacturing, home and vehicle sales data released in the US and Europe last week showed a slower pace of decline last month than in previous months.
"The question is how fast economies like the US can recover. It might take a year or a year and-a-half or it could take a lot longer," Combrinck said. He said the market rally of the past few weeks had been too strong.
Although shares could fall again, he did not believe they would retest the lows hit in February or towards the end of last year. Stock markets had also historically started to rise well before US unemployment figures peaked.
However, as risk aversion receded last week, gold weakened despite the International Monetary Fund saying gold sales agreed by the Group of Twenty (G-20) to raise money for low-income countries applied only to the 403 tons already approved last year and were not additional.
Alvise Marino, an economist at IDEAglobal in New York, said following the G-20 meeting and the beginning of the US first quarter reporting season next week, market conditions were likely to thin.
The rand was also likely to trade sideways ahead of the Easter holiday, following its recent strong run. "After the holiday, the stage will be taken over by the earnings season abroad and the general elections at home," Marino said. "We believe that the uncertainty ensuing from the combination of the two events will be detrimental to risk appetite." With Reuters

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