East African Business Week (Kampala)
James Mwakisyala
18 April 2009
Dar es Salaam — Prospects that Tanzania's offshore could have oil now threaten to split the union with Zanzibar.
On the other hand, this is uniting Zanzibar's political rivals.
The isles House of Representatives has been up in arms demanding oil should be removed from the Union affairs.
That both licensing for oil exploration and actual oil benefits, if found, should belong to Zanzibar.
The Union Government has stressed that oil exploration was a Union matter and has gone ahead to consider applications for exploration of the Indian Ocean waters surrounding the islands of Pemba and Unguja (the main island).
The prospects for striking oil aren't as bright as one would have hoped at present. Tanzania's coastal and offshore exploration since the 1970s has only resulted in striking huge reserves of natural gas at three areas.
These are Songo Songo Island off Mtwara region; Mnazi Bay in Lindi in southern Tanzania; and Kimbiji, a short distance south of Dar es Salaam.
Latest reports show that no major oil well has been found so far.
There have been numerous rumours about finding oil seeps in the Rufiji River valley, and some studies of the country's bedrock show a 'high' probability of finding oil in several places in the country's Indian Ocean coastal belt and on the mainland.
Several foreign companies have signed contracts with the Union government to explore for oil but none has been lucky enough to hit a well.
Exploration for oil began nearly 60 years ago.
Such information notwithstanding, to most of the islands House Representatives, it is an emotional issue.
Members of Parliament of the ruling Chama cha Mapinduzi (CCM) and those of the opposition Civic United Front (CUF) converge on this issue.
The legislators claim that oil wasn't stated in the 1964 articles of the Union between the founders Mwalimu Julius Nyerere and Sheikh Amani Abeid Karume of Zanzibar.
The Union Government argues that the sea is intractably linked to Tanzania's sovereignty, and all aspects of that nature are Union matters.
Although CCM and CUF have been at each other's throat over elections and the current political unease in the isles, political observers on Tanzania mainland assume that this is a political gimmick aimed at winning votes in next year's general elections.
The islanders have also demanded that if oil be a Union matter then all minerals be likewise.
They demand to have a share of the proceeds from the myriad of minerals on the mainland.
Zanzibar gets 4.5% of the Union revenue while the Union government retains the rest of 94.5% as agreed upon early 1990s with the help of the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
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I really fail to understand the logic here. The thing is, Zanzibar is getting 4.6% of the Union revenue, and of course it is not sharing any of its revenue with the mainland or contributing to the union government. This has been so for years, basically meaning Zanzibar has always been carried financially by the Union government. Now all of a sudden, at a mere speculation that there might be oil, they want it all. Zanzibar politicians are just proving the fact that they are a difficult bunch to deal with, as has always been the case. They have a serious problem of double standards, and this has been the case even in the taxation issues. They strongly argued for Zanzibar to become a duty free port - then mainland Tanzania said fine, go ahead, but once those goods come to our side they will be subject to the usual import levies and duties. Then they started making loud cries of unfair treatment! (Nyerere equated this to a baby who wants to be picked and ends up messing on you, and is still the one that cries!). Believe me, mainland could tell them to go and jump in their loved Indian ocean, break the union, establish lines of international divide (yes, mainland would still be entitled to half the waters between Zanzibar and mainland, which may likely result in a forced 50-50% sharing if oil was discovered in the area, as it is done in the North sea when there is an overlap of the resource to several countries.
If mainland was to end the union, believe me, things would get very violent in Zanzibar, especially between those of Arab and African descendancy. They might seem to be united now, but that marriage is very flimsy and thin. You probably know that most of the Arab descendacy don’t even want to be part "revolution" commemoration, saying they can’t celebrate the "massacre" of their grandfathers. And of course, just imagine if the mainland was to pull out of the union now, and it proved that there was no oil in Zanzibar. The Zanzibarians myopically think they can opt to be part of some of the Arab countries, and that would be the end of their problems. What they do not know, is how the "African" Zanzibarians would fare in case they decided to be part of some Arab country, or what kind of union they would have with such an Arab country. An arrangement better than one they have with Tanzania mainland? For sure they would get lots of interest from the US, but not the Official Development Aid (ODA) kind! They blame Nyerere now, forgetting that during Nyerere's time Union government used to foot the Zanzibar civil servants salary bill, and Zanzibar even got away with non-remittance of electricity consumption revenue to Tanesco, the national power utility. And they also forget that even at individual level, Zanzibarians enjoy the benefits of the union far more than their mainland Tanzania; even it terms of available market, population density control etc. If one was kick out all Zanzibarians from the mainland (like they usually kick mainlanders from the island), Zanzibar would be chaotic. In fact very few of those, especially the “wapembas”, would want to return to Zanzibar. They say Nyerere manipulated the union, may be, but how about remembering the union was also their own idea against a counter revolution by the Sultan of Oman? They definitely knew then that a hasty union would protect them against a counter revolution, as any attack of Zanzibar would be a declaration of war with Tanzania. The only long term benefit Nyerere saw there was security against the liberation struggle in Southern Africa, lest Zanzibar fall into the hands of the colonial masters in Southern Africa, including the Boers in South Africa. Nyerere never went for the union because he wanted to “exploit” the riches of Zanzibar. He knew it would cost the mainland to have Zanzibar as part of Tanzania. I personally consider Zanzibarian politicians to be exactly what Nyerere said, a baby that wants you to pick him up, ends up messing you, and is still the one that cries! End the union between Tanzania mainland and Zanzibar and Zanzibar will become another Somalia.
Yes! It is believed that when resources are scarce, society will struggle for it, if there is no shared understanding of the resources how to utilize may result to conflict in any society. A sign of conflict of interest now smoking in Zanzibar. My fellow Tanzanians, we were united not to say this is mine but in order to corporate and share what we have for interest of Tanzanians. It might be true that some of the union matters were/are not in the contract, constitution or so to say, My view is that, since there has been a lot about Union, both sides hostorically have been complaining in one way or other that, do no benefit much on certain matters or policy. I ask my fellow Tanzanians to discuss this matter openly and let every one who has good interest with Tanzania be given opportunity to share how best we can accomodate and contain our pitfalls. Our fellow Americans have been debating their matters openly, of course, they might not agree at initial, but later they do! Why not Tanzania. We can and we have all ability to do so. There so many challenges, be socia-economic and many that must be addressed willingly by all Tanzania. I know it is NOT easy for people to change and trust each other because of one reason, it be colonial mentality, be political idealogy or it be not ready to share ideas because of personal belief. Please, If we will not make it debatable and use force to handle it, will create uncessary conflicts and high rate of dependence from donors and poverty within our society. We have political conflicts that continue to potray bad image to our Union. Lets work together to agree, united in all matters so as to bring unity.
With respect to Oil matters, I think, the matter is debatable and agreement may be made how the resources could benefit the country (Tanzania). In my view, Zanzibar needs to develop its citizens, it does not depend agricultural like Mainland, I think, Zanzibar may be given authority to exploit it and utilize for citizens of Tanzania. For sure, good economic growth of Zanzibar will have good multiplier effects to Mainland interms of Investmemt in many unexploited resources like agricultural. Mainland, keep on investing on Agrobusiness, we (I come from Mainland) have plenty of unexploited land and that will let agriculture be good investement for our country. Agriculture policies should be supported by infrastuctures ( e.g,Roads network) which will promote and facilitate other opportunities. Infrastucture is like an artery in which allows the blood circulate all aroungd the body to make us survive. if you cut a an artery, by default, you will die. We are poor because of poor infrastuctures which does not catalyse and encourage private investor in Agriculture/BUSINESS or industrial. In addition, let politicians be no corrupt. They make us suffer.
Thanks. Give them room to exploit the oil.