Johannesburg — THE global airline industry is likely to bear the brunt of the swine flu scare, with many passengers reconsidering their travel plans as new infections are reported around the world.

About 50 swine flu infections have been identified so far in the US, while more than 150 people have died in neighbouring Mexico, where the first infections were identified at the weekend. European Union (EU) officials said flu cases were also being probed in several EU countries.

No cases of swine flu have been reported in SA and the government is taking steps to pre-empt a possible outbreak, the Department of Health said yesterday. Response teams have been established in all nine provinces and health staff were being trained to identify and treat the disease. Clinical and laboratory surveillance measures, including at SA's airports, had been stepped up to identify suspected cases.

The International Air Transport Association (Iata) said the flu outbreak could not have come at a worse time for the airline industry, already hard hit by the worst financial crisis in decades. "It is still too early to judge what impact swine flu will have on the bottom line. But anything that shakes the confidence of passengers has a negative impact on the business ," said Giovanni Bisignani, Iata's director-general and CEO.

SA airlines are largely sheltered from swine flu, with only South African Airways's flights to Washington and New York potentially affected by the outbreak. However, the airline said yesterday there had been no effect on its international routes and demand for flights remained strong.

Iata said passenger demand fell to 11,1% below levels recorded in March last year while airlines cut international passenger capacity by 4,4%, resulting in an average load factor of 72,1%, 5,4 percentage points lower than the same time last year. Freight demand fell 21,4% compared to March last year.

Iata has said airlines could lose $4,7bn this year even before the impact of swine flu is felt. But Finland's Finnair, after unveiling worse than expected quarterly losses yesterday, said Iata was too optimistic and that airlines could lose more than the $8,5bn they lost last year.