30 April 2009
editorial
Johannesburg — THE election is hardly over and the horse trading between the members of the tripartite alliance has begun. It's payback time, as was inevitable given the manner in which president-in-waiting Jacob Zuma rose to power.
This is a critical period for SA, and the stakes are just as high for the African National Congress (ANC) itself, as for union federation Cosatu and the South African Communist Party. The decisions that are made during the coming weeks will be an indicator of the direction they have chosen for the country, and the message that is sent out to the world on what sort of society SA intends to become. They will also determine whether the ruling alliance has a long-term future.
With his elbow room restricted by the global economic situation and a multitude of opposing interest groups he needs to keep on side, Zuma is under immense pressure to trade influence for past support and future loyalty. The focus for now is on Cabinet positions, but even once the new government has been formed the alliance partners are sure to keep demanding their pound of flesh. That is the price Zuma must pay for being rescued from the political wilderness.
Former president Thabo Mbeki's fall from grace came in part because he thought he could go it alone. Zuma will not repeat that mistake, but walking this tightrope is easier said than done -- he must balance the need to ensure the centre holds against the danger of making critical policy and governance errors in an unforgiving global environment.
Hence the media leaks concerning candidates for Cabinet positions, which amount to the ruling party and its allies testing the waters. The adverse market reaction to Finance Minister Trevor Manuel's "resignation" at the time of Mbeki's ousting persuaded the ANC that he had to be kept on in the Cabinet despite his unpopularity with the leftists in the alliance. But in what capacity, and who would be an acceptable replacement if Manuel was asked to relinquish the keys to the Treasury? The indications are that South African Revenue Service head Pravin Gordhan has been identified as an acceptable compromise within the alliance, and the likelihood is that his appointment would get the thumbs-up from the business community too.
Another kite that has been sent up to determine which way the winds of societal opinion are blowing is the suggestion that SA Clothing and Textile Workers' Union general secretary Ebrahim Patel will be brought in to handle the industry portfolio, which is likely to be split from trade in the new dispensation. Patel is an astute and decisive individual who has a reputation for making things happen, which is precisely what the portfolio needs after stagnating in recent years.
But his track record in the clothing and textile sector is poor: the union bears much of the responsibility for the fact that the industry has failed to reinvent itself in the face of cheap imports and is being decimated as a result. Cosatu may be keen to pull the strings, but the Patel kite is destined to fly like a lead balloon.
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