Karima Brown
6 May 2009
analysis
Johannesburg — AFTER 15 years of democracy, SA, the poster child of a peaceful transition, stands at a fork in the road, according to the Dinokeng scenario team which plotted three possible futures for the country up to 2020.
The choices are stark and all have their seeds in the present political and social reality.
The first scenario, Walk Apart, paints a bleak picture of a failed state well on its way to authoritarianism, with a widening chasm between rulers and ruled, a growing deficit on the delivery front and the eventual emergence of rule "of the strong man".
Summarising the conclusions of the team, Dr Mamphela Ramphele told a gathering in Johannesburg yesterday : "A healthy democracy and a strong socioeconomic development requires a healthy interface between an effective state and an alert and active citizenry.
"South Africans are standing at a crossroads. Each one of us -- citizens and leaders -- must choose how we walk forward. Through the steps we take we will create our future."
The scenario team consists of a diverse group of South Africans.
Ramphele , chairwoman of the convener group, said three inter-related trends were observed.
"Since 1994, citizens have become disengaged (or have been co-opted into government or party structures), state capacity to address our challenges is weak and declining, and leaders of all sectors have become increasingly self-centred, unethical and unaccountable."
Emphasising that scenarios were not in any way predictions, Ramphele said all of the scenarios "have their seeds" in the present. She said they allowed the country to draw apart the "intertwined strands of complex reality in order to see more clearly the risks and opportunities we face".
The Walk Apart option posits the idea that the country limps along much in the same manner as it has up to now, beset with worsening poverty and unemployment. Coupled with this are growing insecurity and an ailing public health system which is unable to meet the needs of the poor. Crime becomes endemic and corruption is the order of the day.
The delivery deficit grows larger, resulting in forces "outside the state, some of them criminal, filling the gap created by the state's failure to deliver. Protests, unrest and a growing disconnect between rulers and the ruled plague the failed state. Protesters are pitted against an authoritarian state that clamps down on unruly citizens."
In the section titled Yesterday, Today and Tomorrow Are the Same, the scenario says between 2009 and 2011 the government tries but fails to find the requisite technical and managerial capacity to make good on its election promises.
While there is a change of guard in the leadership at the level of the state, it continues to ignore "available expertise" in civil society and the private sector.
The rupture in the ruling party sees the exodus of civil servants with institutional memory, resulting in the African National Congress (ANC) "purchasing" political loyalty through the "promise of jobs or patronage".
Compounding the weaknesses of a dysfunctional state, the economy is under strain in the global financial meltdown.
Attempts to draw up a social pact between business, labour and the government are bedevilled by a shortage of trust. The collapse of the local state as a result of municipalities being unable to spend their budget allocations properly only fuels dissatisfaction and poor delivery. By 2010 the government feels buoyed by the Soccer World Cup, but the residue of the global crises diminishes government's revenue as tax continues to decline.
The state's large investment in the expanded public works programme does not pay off, leaving unemployment undented.
In the period 2012 to 2014, called Tinkering Around the Edges, wary investors fed up with a deteriorating energy, transport and telecommunication infrastructure start rethinking their commitment to invest in SA. Growth stagnates, resulting in "the rate of investment declining".
This is compounded by large-scale retrenchments in export sectors such as mining, making joblessness an even bigger headache. "For the first time in nearly two decades, no new jobs are created," the team suggests. The disconnect between citizens and the state increases. As joblessness increases, so does crime.
"The first-line victims of criminals are the working poor, those who still earn wages, who are robbed or pickpocketed on the taxis that take them to and from work. The elite are also targeted but generally they live in well- guarded homes," the document reads.
With elections looming in 2014 and the ensuing social pressure, the emergence of a strong autocratic leader to restore public order becomes increasingly appealing . The ANC is restored to power due to a placated public service and the very poor who are living off social grants from the state. But "the shadows lengthen" and the cracks in the system deepen .
"Government has borrowed heavily to fill the gap created by the decrease in tax revenues. Short-term public sector wage increases and increased social spending has forced the government to increase the deficit again. However, there is no improvement in service delivery and the quality of the services provided.
"The pressure of increased migration to the informal peri- urban areas becomes a powder keg."
By 2015-2017 a worst-case scenario develops into a situation where unaccountable but powerful groupings outside the government provide protection or deliver services in exchange for support and patronage .
The scenario suggests that "it is not inconceivable that we could end up with a Colombian mafia- type scenario where gangs become a form of social delivery" .
Lack of accountability and transparency worsens.
By 2018-2020 there is increasing government intolerance of opposition , with the media set to be gagged. The ANC enters the 2019 election on the defensive, aware of the discontent and its grip on power slipping fast.
The loaded political environment puts a question mark over the fairness of the election, resulting in accusations of a Zimbabwe-type filling of state institutions with ruling party lackeys. A spiral of resistance and repression is unleashed, leading to social and political instability, with investors fleeing. A state of emergency is declared and SA goes from a developing democracy to a banana republic.
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Thanks for long & interesting article and I look forward to seeing the scenarios. One thing though: you say "the outcome of the exercise surprised the participants. But so too did the outcome of Mont Fleur, which started out asking questions about whether there would be a negotiated settlement, but ended up focusing on a question that was hardly even on the radar at the time -- what should be the economic policy of the new government? ........ I can say with absolute assurance, as one who lived through it all, that what the economic policy of the post-apartheid govt should be was always, always, always, a MAJOR issue.
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