African Elections Project (Accra)
Arnold Munthali
18 May 2009
analysis
On Tuesday, May 19, Malawians go to the polls for only their fourth time since the country attained multiparty democracy in 1993 to elect a president and members of parliament.
Over a thousand parliamentary and seven presidential candidates, including one female and one independent, will present themselves to public scrutiny on Elections Day.
It remains to be seen whether the elections of Tuesday will usher in the beginning of another era in the event that the incumbent, President Bingu wa Mutharika, loses the election or the perpetuation of the status quo.
President Mutharika is facing a stern test in veteran politician, John Tembo, leader of the Malawi Congress Party (MCP), the liberation movement that has been out of power since it relinquished power to the United Democratic Front (UDF) in 1994 after thirty years in power.
This will be President Mutharika's third presidential contest. He stood for the United Party in 1999 but he came a distant last in a pool of five. He dissolved his party in 2000 and joined the UDF on whose ticket he won the 2004 elections, ahead of his main challenger in Tuesday's polls, Tembo.
In his 2004 victory, Mutharika profited heavily from the vigorous campaign of the charismatic leader of the UDF, Bakili Muluzi. However, Mutharika had no such benefit this time around after he ditched the UDF in 2005.
Crucially, Muluzi has joined forces with Tembo to form probably the most potent electoral alliance since 1993. With Muluzi controlling the heavily populated Eastern Region and Tembo dominating the Central Region, options for Mutharika seems thin in the elections but he remains upbeat of pulling a shock result.
If Mutharika looses the May 19 polls, his presidency will be remembered for the torrid time his government had to pass crucial bills, notably the national budget, through a parliament dominated by the opposition, who seemed driven by revenge. UDF had scores to settle with Mutharika for unceremoniously dumping the party after funding his election's campaign. On the other hand, MCP felt aggrieved after it emerged that the UDF may have manipulated the 2004 vote in favour of Mutharika at Tembo's expense.
But the outlook does not seem to look any better for whoever wins the ticket to the State House. With so many parties and independents contesting in the parliamentary polls, no party is assured of an outright majority and unless the prospective president is very tactful, the shenanigans of the last parliament where government was at the mercy of the opposition will haunt the First Citizen.
On Saturday, political parties conducted their last rallies across the country to woe undecided voters.
While Mutharika was wowing the commercial city of Blantyre on a whistle stop tour, Muluzi was in his party's stronghold, Mangochi, about 400km north-east of Blantyre, urging his supporters to rally behind Tembo.
Tembo himself was in Kasungu, the home district of Malawi's first president and former leader of MCP, Dr. Kamuzu Banda, which is located about 300km north of Lilongwe, while his running-mate, Brown Mpinganjira, was in Mulanje about 80 km south of Blantyre to deliver the last campaign message.
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