Johannesburg — THE overheated suite in Johannesburg's northern suburbs had an artificial, fully furnished rental feel, the only homely touches the national flag behind the president's chair and the children's pram in the hallway.

This is not surprising given his hasty departure from office but the deposed president of Madagascar, Marc Ravalomanana, appears a chipper exile. Removed in an army-backed coup by political rival Andry Rajoelina in March, Ravalomanana wants to return to the island "as president" as soon as possible. But a political deal that will result in a coalition government and fresh elections by the end of this year seems some way off amid the hostility that permeates politics on the world's fourth-largest island.

His advisers, who include his son-in-law, pass around photographs of army brutality. More than 130 people have been killed in the violence that erupted in February when Rajoelina, the mayor of the capital Antananarivo, was relieved of his post. Although he vowed to restore order "whatever the cost", things quickly unravelled for Ravalomanana and he had to split the island.

On March 16, the army occupied Ambohitsorohitra Palace. The next day Ravalomanana was forced to hand over power. Rajoelina, at 34 too young to constitutionally be appointed president, suspended Parliament and immediately installed himself in its presidential offices.

Although the junta initially was to organise elections within 24 months and write a new constitution creating a "Fourth Republic", power was instead transferred directly to Rajoelina, making him president of a "high transitional authority". Even so, Ravalomanana maintains that "95% of the army is loyal -- it's only 150 junior mutinous officers behind the trouble".

When the crisis first broke, Ravalomanana, a neat man in his late 50s, was in Cape Town. He quickly warms to the conversation about his country and its plight, rattling off statistics on how things had improved since he came to power in 2002. The highlights of his rule, he points out, include Madagascar being the first country to gain Millennium Challenge Account donor funding from the US, building 12000km of new roads, trebling agriculture output, raising the number of children in primary education from 63% in 2003 to 92% in 2007, and launching "a strategy that the private sector is the real engine for economic development".

After his second poll victory in 2006, Ravalomanana launched a bold antipoverty programme focusing on further improving governance, education, infrastructure, healthcare, the environment, private sector activities, agriculture and "the pride of the Malagasy". He is clear about growth opportunities : "eco tourism with our 7 000kms of beaches; agriculture, with only half of our arable land being farmed today; and mining".

So why then the violence?

He accuses Rajoelina of being in cahoots with former president Didier Ratsiraka, vested business interests on the island, and "the French". Rajoelina, known to all as "TGV" after the French railway given his high energy level, was reportedly angry at the president's closure of his VIVA television and radio station late last year for having aired a speech by Ratsiraka.

"There are three types of French businessmen on the island," Ravalomanana says, "The original French settlers -- the colons; the rich Indian and Pakistanis with French passports; and the new generation from France who want greater openness." It is the former group, he argues, "who want to control things, and want protectionism, and who are behind the coup." While most of the country's 20-million people are mired in poverty, the economy is controlled by a clutch of 28 families.

Ravalomanana's challenge is now to get back home as quickly as possible. Rajoelina is trying his best to prevent this and Ravalomanana fears for his safety. While stepping in the cauldron of Antananarivo can only increase personal and political threats, unless he does so, Ravalomanana risks quickly becoming the forgotten man of Malagasy politics.

Dr Mills directs the Johannesburg-based Brenthurst Foundation.