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Sudan: Coalition Partners in Unending War of Words

Fred Oluoch

22 June 2009

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analysis

Nairobi — The tension between partners in the historic Sudanese peace deal is now threatening the survival of the coalition government ahead of the 2010 polls.

President Omar al-Bashir's National Congress Party (NCP) and its partner, the Sudanese People's Liberation Movement (SPLM), have of late engaged in public exchanges which analysts attribute to the forthcoming elections and the warrant of arrest issued against the president by the International Criminal Court.

The tension came to the open recently when President al-Bashir threatened to ban SPLM from operating in the North if it does not remove the restrictions imposed on other political parties in the South, while the SPLM accused Khartoum of bankrolling the former's foreign minister, Dr Lam Akol, to form a splinter party of SPLM.

According to President al-Bashir, while the SPLM is free to operate in the North, it denies other parties the same freedom in the South.

Should President al-Bashir make good his threat, it could destroy the foundation of the government of national unity which is the platform for the implementation of the remaining phases of the comprehensive peace agreement, and scuttle the elections that were meant to be held this year but pushed to next year due to insufficient preparations.

In an interview with The EastAfrican, the Government of Southern Sudan (GOSS) head of mission in Kenya, John Andruga Duku, said President al-Bashir's position is baffling given that GOSS is a coalition government involving several parties including the NCP.

He said several south Sudanese parties affiliated to the NCP recently held their convention in Juba, as a clear evidence that everybody has a political space to operate.

Mr Duku, however, conceded that the statement will further destabilise the coalition government that is already riddled with mistrust and complaints from both sides.

"SPLM is unhappy about many things, but we normally follow the official channels of lodging complaints," he said.

The parties represented in parliament include the SPLM, the NCP, South Sudan Democratic Front, Union of Sudan African Party (I and II), United Democratic Sudan Forum and the Sudanese African National Union.

As per the 2005 peace deal, the SPLM enjoys a clear majority of having 75 per cent of representation in the Southern Sudan parliament, followed by NCP with 15 per cent, while the remaining 10 per cent is shared among the smaller parties.

Opinion is divided within SPLM whether Vice-President and the leader of the semi-autonomous South, Salva Kiir, should concentrate on taking over the national leadership, or focus on the 2011 referendum, in which the South is expected to vote to either remain in a united Sudan or secede.

Top NCP leadership believes that the indictment by the ICC is part of Western powers plans to prop up Mr Kiir to assume power in case President al-Bashir is finally arrested, or create anxiety that would make it difficult for the Sudanese to vote for the incumbent.

Despite the signing of the peace deal that ended 21 years of civil war, relations between the two partners in the last four years have been characterised by suspicion.

Apart from evidence that the two partners are stockpiling arms for any eventuality, they are yet to solve the issue of the oil-rich Abyei. The dispute over the North-South boundary has now been forwarded to The Hague for arbitration.

Attention is also on the SPLM following the decision by Dr Akol to form the SPLM-Democratic Change, whose objective he argues, is to save the movement from collapse, accusing the SPLM leadership of engaging in corruption and nepotism.

Dr Akol -- one of the veterans of the SPLM -- now argues that his former party does not allow dissenting views within its rank and has no capacity to bring about democratic change.

But the SPLM, according to Mr Duku, believes that Dr Akol has finally come out in the open to prove that he has been working closely with the NCP since his removal from the foreign affairs post.

"We are questioning why he did not pick an entirely new name and instead using the SPLM tag if he believes strongly that he does not want to be associated with a failed organisation?"

This is not the first time Dr Akol is creating controversy. In 1991, he claimed to have overthrown the late Dr John Garang from the leadership of SPLM.

After the 2005 peace deal, he got the plum ministry courtesy of SPLM, but later on the party decided that he was not serving their interests and replaced him with Deng Alor Kuol.

Ultimately in January, during the SPLM congress involving delegates from all over Sudan, Dr Akol was left out of the party's political bureau, the highest decision making organ.

But despite dismissing Dr Akol as an agent of Khartoum, Mr Duku conceded that SPLM has been facing numerous challenges that has made it difficult to deliver on some of its promises.

The challenges include the high expectations placed on it soon after the signing of the peace deal, the enormous financial commitment needed for reconstruction, the shortfall in oil prices and the internal problems afflicting the party.

Recently, Salva Kiir sacked former finance minister for the south, Kual Athian and replaced him with David Deng, following allegations of misuse of oil revenue.

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