Kwendo Opanga
20 June 2009
opinion
Nairobi — They like to say in the UK that all politics is local. When last year Russia invaded neighbouring Georgia, an American commentator remarked that the US election is decided by events in Atlanta, Georgia, and not Ossetia, Georgia.
After the Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei called the UK the most evil or treacherous of its enemies and with the White House taking flak from the Right over events in Tehran, President Barack Obama and Prime Minister Gordon Brown must wish all issues were local.
Why is Obama being very careful, very measured, in his reaction to the post-presidential poll crisis in Iran? I think it is easy to see why, but that is unlikely to earn him marks in terms of leadership.
The first reason Obama is being extremely cautious is rooted in the history of the US relations with Iran, which goes back to the 1950s when America was accused of helping topple an Iranian government.
From that time, and especially since the days of Jimmy Carter, Tehran has always seen America as a meddler in its affairs. With the coming of the Iranian revolution that overthrew the Shah in 1979, a whole generation of Iranians has grown up knowing that America is the Great Satan.
The second reason has a lot to do with Obama's own initiative to break with the past as regards America's relationship with the Muslim world and pursue a new agenda based on what he calls mutual respect between the US and the Muslim world.
The third reason is that if Obama's White House was to come out and openly side with the protesters in Tehran and against whom the government-backed militia has unleashed terror, he will give the hardliners reason to crack down hard on the voices of dissent typifying them as puppets of America.
The fourth reason would appear to be that the American president is unsure of the reformist credentials of defeated presidential challenger Mousavi, himself a former prime minister, supporter of the nuclear programme and more hardline than his then president and now Supreme Leader.
Fifth, the man whose election is vehemently disputed in Tehran was endorsed by Khamenei whose word counts for much more than the votes that were cast for Ahmadinejad and his opponents combined. Khamenei can also turn the fire of the hardliners against America in an instant.
The last reason why I think Obama is being very, very careful with Tehran is that the first foreign leader to endorse Ahmadinejad is Russia's President Dmitri Medvedev, a powerful regional ally and player in global politics.
Russia and Iran are not only good neighbours, but it is becoming increasingly clear to the Obama White House that to effectively deal with the threat to regional and global peace posed by Afghanistan and Pakistan -- or Afghanistan/Pakistan -- Iran will have to be brought into the picture.
Obama is therefore walking a tightrope, but to his critics the position he has taken is a sign of weakness from the leader of the so-called free world and especially when on Capitol Hill both Republicans and Democrats have come together to condemn the repression of dissent in Tehran.
To the Republicans, standing up and speaking up for freedom and democracy -- which Obama wants for the Arab world and which he called for in Egypt recently -- is to abdicate a hallmark of American leadership in the world.
This is even more so for two reasons: one, that while Obama has extended a hand to Iran, President Ahmadinejad has declared that Tehran will pursue its nuclear ambition. Tehran insists that it is after nuclear power for generation of energy, but a suspicious West believes the Persian state will weaponise as soon as it gets nuclear capability.
The second reason is that French President Sarkozy and German Chancellor Merkel have respectively denounced the results of the presidential poll and the use of force against dissent in Tehran more forcefully than has Obama.
The third reason Obama is looking weak and undecided to those who want firm and tougher action against Tehran is that supporters of Mousavi have been dismayed by the president's statement that there may not be much difference between their man and Ahmadinejad.
In their view, Obama is hiding behind the non-meddling rhetoric and questioning Mousavi's reformist credentials in order to buy the support of Khamenei and Ahmadinejad in his pursuit of a new relationship with Tehran and the Muslim world.
It is in Israel, however, that Obama's position on Iran may be most detested. This despite the fact that Israel will not allow cement to be ferried into Gaza to enable Palestinians whose houses it demolished in its invasion early in the year to build.
Tel Aviv makes no secret of the fact that it will not allow a nuclear-armed Iran next door. Indeed, it is widely believed that Israel has an aerial strike plan to take out Iran's nuclear facilities not only worked out but also rehearsed.
Would you then say Obama is weak? I say he appears to have hesitated for far too long given the treacherous road he is treading.
It was American President Theodore Roosevelt who advised American diplomats abroad to "tread softly and carry the big stick, you will go far." Obama must be firm with Iran the same way he has been with Israel on settlements but have a sweetener somewhere in the wings.
One party will have to back down or a compromise be found. The lessons from Jimmy Carter, Ronald Reagan and George W. Bush are there for the Obama team to learn. What may sink the Obama ship is that there are far too many local and global issues to deal with.
Kwendo Opanga is a media consultant.
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