Wachira Kang'aru
2 July 2009
Nairobi — Kenya's economic recovery registered mixed signals between January and March, arousing both hope and pessimism that the country could soon bounce back to a high growth pedestal.
Comparison
The first-quarter of 2009 recorded an improved economic performance in comparison to that of 2008, a period that was locked in post-election violence, but worsened relative to growth recorded between October and December last year.
Releasing the 2009 first-quarter economic performance figures, Kenya National Bureau of Statistics, says the country's real gross domestic product (GDP) expanded by 3.9 per cent compared with a 0.6 per cent decline recorded between January and March 2008.
"The improved GDP growth is signal of a rebound of the economic activities that had remained subdued throughout 2008 due to several factors, resulting to a low base for the current quarter," a statement signed by KNBS director general, Anthony Kilele, read.
But a seasonally adjusted GDP, one done to make it possible to compare unrelated quarters, showed that growth in the country's wealth declined in the first-quarter by 0.8 per cent, compared to the fourth quarter of 2008.
A reduced growth, comparative to 1.8 per cent growth recorded between October to December 2008 in GDP, dashes hope for a quick recovery, given that the fourth-quarter's economic conditions are a better indicator of dynamics influencing the economy today.
Growth
A 3.9 per cent growth, however, gives indication that the economy is in line to achieve the government's projected growth of between 2 to 3 per cent in 2009.
The recovery was driven by a 59 per cent growth in hotels and restaurants, and 30.7 per cent in construction compared to a contraction of 53.3 per cent and growth of 3.9 per cent, respectively, during similar period in 2008.
The growth also benefited from a smaller contraction in agriculture and forestry, which account for about 25 per cent of country's wealth, recording a 0.9 per cent decline compared to a substantial decline of 6.1 per cent in the same quarter of 2008.
"Therefore, its impact on the overall growth was less detrimental," the statement read further.
The sector, however, still carries the risk of slowing down recovery due to its reliance on rainfall, which has been recorded as none, little, or delayed in different parts of the country.
"This unfavourable weather condition is expected to affect most agricultural output," KNBS says.
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