Dagi Kimani
6 July 2009
Nairobi — Confirmation by Kenya of the region's first case of swine flu or H1N1 is raising fears of economic repercussions, with the farming and tourism sectors at most risk.
For players in the farming industry, the worry is that a misconception that H1N1 can be contracted from eating pork, or by coming into contact with pigs, will lead to lower sales. If this happens, they say, other businesses such as those dealing with pig feed and veterinary services will also be affected.
"As the global health and veterinary agencies have said, H1N1 has absolutely nothing to do with pigs, and it is important that people know that it is safe to consume pork products," Jim Taylor, the managing director and chief executive of Farmer's Choice, the region's leading pork processor told The EastAfrican. "It will be regrettable if people act on wrong information," he said.
According to Mr Taylor, Kenya's pig industry, the most developed in the East African Community, is worth $30million-$40 million annually, and directly and indirectly employs up to 75,000 people. At any one time it is estimated pig farmers in the country have a total complement of 150,000 animals.
Farmer's Choice has 1,200 employees, and over 700 contracted farmers.
The company produces 11,000 tonnes of pork products annually, of which about a quarter are exported to such destinations as Dubai, Abu Dhabi, Oman, West Africa and Mauritius, as well as the rest of the EAC.
"Our export markets are convinced of the quality of our products, and East Africans should be too," said Mr Taylor. "There's absolutely no cause for alarm, as H1N1 is a human-to-human virus."
Kenya's first swine flu case was confirmed in a British university student who had travelled into the country in a group of 34 from Nottingham, UK, for volunteer work in Western Kenya. Nottingham has been recognised as a H1N1 hotspot in the UK.
Confirmation of the case raised questions about the effectiveness of Kenya's surveillance systems, as the British student had passed through the Jomo Kenyatta International Airport (JKIA), where all visitors are supposed to be screened.
He then travelled nearly 400 kilometres by road west of Nairobi to Kisumu before his illness was detected.
The challenges posed by H1N1 to business are not unprecedented.
Three years ago, in late 2006, the region's poultry industry faced similar circumstances when it emerged that bird flu, H5N1, could spread in the region.
Although no case was detected, by January 2007 the sale of poultry products had plummeted by half, compelling industry players to mount one of the most concerted education and marketing campaigns prompted by a health alert.
Exports, mainly to Uganda and Rwanda then worth $8.3 million annually, also fizzled out.
Soon after the scare passed, Kenchic, Kenya's and the region's largest integrated poultry company launched the farm-to-fork initiative, in which every product is given a barcode that enables it to be tracked back to source. Farmer's Choice also has in place a similar system.
Kenyan health officials say that H1N1 is unlikely to have a similar economic impact largely because the disease is milder and less deadly than initially thought. In the United States, for example, the disease had by last week killed only 127 people out of an estimated one million infections.
"Swine flu is a relatively mild disease, and it should not cause any alarm," said Health and Sanitation Minister Beth Mugo. "Even the person confirmed to have the disease is cheerful and does not seem sick."
Last week, tourism officials also downplayed the possibility of the flu affecting their business, which is already struggling due to the combined effects of the global downturn and last year's post-election violence.
"We have the assurance of the Ministry (of Health) that they are capable of handling swine flu," said Jake Grieves-Cook, the chairman of the Kenya Tourist Board.
"The isolated case will not in any way affect business in the sector."
Kenya's ministry of tourism assistant minister, Cecily Mbarire, however said that the tourism industry could help the region curb the spread of the flu by being vigilant and reporting suspected cases to health authorities.
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