Julius Bosire
6 July 2009
Nairobi — US think tank Fund for Peace has ranked Kenya 14 out of 20 countries considered to be critical in the "failed state" category.
In its Failed States Index annual report, the think tank says Kenya's stability was wavering since the 2007 General Election, but expressed hope that the Coalition government led by President Mwai Kibaki's Party of National Unity and Prime Minister Raila Odinga's Orange Democratic Movement could save the situation if it delivered services to the people.
Kenya was the worst ranked country in East Africa scoring 101.4, inching closer to the most unstable state in world, Somalia, which scored 114.7. In 2008 Kenya scored 93.4; in 2007, 91.2 and in 2006 scored 88.6.
Tanzania was ranked among the more stable nations with a score of 81.1 but in a different class of "the warning category" which can be said to be stable. Rwanda scored 89.0 in the same category as Tanzania.
The most stable nation of the world is Norway with 18.3. Uganda scored 96.9 and Burundi 95.7.
Kenya's current poor showing was drawn from its failure to contain corruption, which the report says is widespread, with the Kenya Anti-Corruption Commission failing in its mandate.
Commenting on the report, Foreign Affairs Assistant Minister Richard Onyonka warned that the country could degenerate further if national resources were not equitably shared, arguing that the consequences of corruption had impoverished many Kenyans and deterrent measures were needed.
"Unless Kenyans are willing to resolve these issues and ensure that those factors that make our country fail are corrected, then I agree with the report," Mr Onyonka said.
The minister pointed out that land ownership and fighting impunity must be addressed for the country to regain its pre-2007 stability.
"We must implement Kofi Annan's recommendations on Agenda Four regarding land policy, equity and fairness, the judiciary and structures which act as deterrents against impunity in our country. The fighting after the elections was not necessarily about political power. It was about resources and unless there is equity in resources distribution in any country there is likely to be no lasting peace," Mr Onyonka said.
A failed state is an administrative unit where services can no longer be delivered to the masses by the governing elite.
German philosopher Max Weber described state as "monopoly of power." A failed state then is where the monopoly gets out of hand -- the police, judiciary and other bodies serving to maintain law and order have either ceased to exist or are no longer able to operate.
A "state" in the context of Fund for Peace is defined within the Westphalian sense -- where sovereign states could control the larger portion of their territory and population and act as sovereign entities in the sense of co-operating with other states, govern according to the rule of law, respect international legal obligations, prevent crime and deliver essential services to its people.
If a state (government) fails to deliver or does not abide by the above mentioned conditions, it may be deemed failed.
Failed states can no longer perform basic functions such as offering education, security, or governance, usually due to fractious violence or extreme poverty.
Within this power vacuum, people fall victim to competing factions and crime, and sometimes the United Nations or neighbouring states intervene to prevent a humanitarian disaster.
The ranking by the Washington-based Fund for Peace Failed State Index focuses on the movement of refugees or internally displaced persons creating complex humanitarian emergencies, where Kenya scored 9.0, a very poor score.
In the legacy of vengeance-seeking, group grievance or group paranoia, it scored 8.6 and in chronic and sustained human flight it scored 8.3.
On the economic front, uneven economic development along group lines was taken into consideration with the country scoring 8.8, while the economic decline earned the state 7.5 rating.
Political indicators used focus on criminalisation and delegitimisation of the state, where the country performed dismally with a rating of 9.0, progressive deterioration of public services got 8.0, suspension or arbitrary application of the rule of law and widespread violation of human rights got 8.2, security apparatus operating as a "state within a state" was scored 8.0, rise of factionalised elites, 8.8; and intervention of other states or external political actors the country scored 8.3.
The indicator for uneven development remained high at 8.1 as half the population lives below the poverty line and 40 per cent is unemployed.
That the think tank believes that the country can redeem itself, is a pointer that most probably the survey data was collected about the time of the events preceding and after the 2007 General Election.
It is however important to note that states fail not only because of internal factors, but foreign governments can also knowingly destabilise a state by fueling ethnic war or supporting rebel forces, causing it to collapse.
Former United Nations secretary-general Boutros Boutros-Ghali described a failed state thus: "A feature of such conflicts is the collapse of state institutions, especially the police and judiciary, with resulting paralysis of governance, a breakdown of law and order, and general banditry and chaos. Not only are the functions of government suspended, but its assets are destroyed or looted and experienced officials are killed or flee the country.
This is rarely the case in inter-state wars. It means that international intervention must extend beyond military and humanitarian tasks and must include the promotion of international reconciliation and the re-establishment of effective government."
Whereas Kenya was ranked 14 with a total score of 101.4,
The organisation notes: "The elections of December 2007 showed that Kenya still has a long way to go in rooting out corruption and building a stable democracy. Although Kenya has taken several steps in the right direction, it still faces a number of challenges."
The report points out that President Kibaki had succeeded in some areas, such as reforms in education and strengthening the economy, but tribal favouritism within the government and election fraud had led to violent fighting along ethnic lines.
"Much depends on whether the two groups -- in the power-sharing government that was created to end months of post-election political stand-off will work together. If so, the government can return to improving public services, reforming the police force, building the economy and fighting poverty," says the report.
The score for delivery of public services remained at 7.4 as was in 2008.
Healthcare was found to be poor. "The government only spends 4.5 per cent of the gross domestic product on health expenditure and there is a high risk of waterborne and bacterial diseases."
The indicator for human rights worsened from 7.0 in 2007 to 7.2 in 2008. Human rights abuses were widespread, often involving excessive force and unlawful killings by the police, as well as violence against women.
The score for security apparatus remained high at 7.1 and although the government had been working toward police reform, the police force continues to commit serious human rights abuses against citizens. Factionalised elites worsened from 8.2 in 2007 to 8.4 in 2008.
The index gives Kenya's military a clean bill of health.
"The Kenyan military is voluntary, professional and under civilian control. The primary role of the approximately 22,000 military personnel is to defend the borders, given the instability of the region. The military has not been involved in political competition or local conflict."
But the police are blamed of corruption and brutality.
Under President Kibaki, significant reforms have been undertaken. Problems remain, however, including unlawful killings, torture, excessive force and arbitrary arrest.
The report points out that although the law provides for judicial independence, the executive branch has considerable influence.
"Corruption in the judiciary has been a problem, which is being addressed somewhat by Kibaki's reform measures. Defendants had the right to an attorney, but indigent defendants did not have the right to an attorney provided by the state, except in capital cases. As a result, the majority of defendants were tried without an attorney."
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