Abuja — The topical issue now is the alarm raised on food shortage. Africa indeed is in trouble. Africa has been a continent of drought in parts for decades. Climate change may in fact be the last straw that will break the camels back. This is so because food supplement from other lands may not be readily available any more due to global shortage. Can Africa indeed survive the onslaught of global food shortage and global warming. Here is the answer.

"Because of its poverty, its dependence on locally grown food, recurrent droughts and floods, the civil unrest and political instability of failed states and diseases like malaria and AIDS pandemic, parts of Africa are in crisis or live on the edge of crisis. Global warming will make coping with these problems worse in some cases much worse"(EEN)

Since Africa largely depends on rain fed agriculture for her existence, any disruption in the amount of rainfall available to Africa will definitely spell doom.

The reality though scary, is that global warming (climate change) has been projected to reduce rainfall in even areas now known as water-scare environment by between 5% - 20%.

Countries like Niger, Chad, Sudan, Burkina Faso are definitely endangered already. The situation will be exacerbated if further reduction in these countries are experienced.

Countries like Nigeria, Cameroon, Ghana are already bearing a lot of burden on behalf of the sub-Saharan countries. This writer believes that until a country like Nigeria includes Chad, Niger, Burkina Faso in her food budget and production, she (Nigeria) will continue to experience the hunger -induced influx of citizens of the named countries in to Nigeria. Now that food scarcity is predicted for the next decades, how many of these 'aliens' will Nigeria support. The Xenophobia going on in South Africa has to do with the matter of the stomach. South Africans believe that foreigners especially Zimbabweans who flee their country to avoid hunger are dislocating them from their own livelihood. Africa has been described as a top notcher among the failed states of the world.

While parts of Africa are thriving, Africa is the worlds poorest continent, with 19 of the worlds 25 poorest countries. Using 12 social, economic, political and military indicators, a recent study on "failed states" has 11 African countries in the top 20. Nearly 200 million Africans are undernourished and one third of African children are stunted or underweight. Sub- Saharan Africa has 10% of the world's population, but 24% of the worlds disease burden (EEN)

At the outset of this paper, it was pointed out that even non-scientific observation has established climate change in Africa. Naturalists may attribute this to the god's anger. Even if this is so, the gods should spare a thought for the hundreds of millions that will be affected if their anger persists. However, the scientists using empirical evidence are concerned over the destruction to humans that will in occur Africa if climate change is not mitigated around the world and its effect is let loose on Africa.

Climate change a.k.a. Global warming will affect Africa in the following observed ways: hunger, disease burden, political instability, brain-drain and decimation of populations.

Hunger: it has already been said that over 90% of agriculture is rain fed with "about 300 million Africans currently living in a water-scare environment" which increase in population could jack-up to 600 million peoples. If global warming persists, crop failure will occur in areas where rainfall diminishes. Hunger is the attendant result. Many of the countries concerned are not economically viable to import food. Food donors will reduce in number given the current schism on food scarcity .The economic melt meltdown has further compounded the problem of food shortage in the world even in America. African-Americans in Chicago will tell the story better.

Brain-Drain: Africa is experiencing flight of her well trained citizens to countries of Europe and America where life is more comfortable. For now its because of jobs that are not available locally, everyday necessities of life like electricity, water, good hospital, socio-physical security and adventure. When food security is added to already tense situations in some African countries, the rate of emigration of well trained manpower can be imagined.

Disease Burden: The Evangelical Environment Network (EEN) puts the issue of health more succintingly and we quote.

"A prime example of how climate change will impact human health is malaria. Currently, 360-400 million people live in areas with malaria worldwide resulting in over one million deaths each year - with 90% of fatalities occurring in African. Ninety percent of malaria's victims are children under five. Because climate change will help disease-carrying agents such as mosquitoes move into new areas, millions of Africans could be exposed to malaria for the first time. Other vector-borne diseases such as dengue fever will also increase. Beside these diseases, additional flooding from climate change will also exacerbate health threats resulting from poor sanitation such as cholera and diarrhoea (one of the leading killers of children). Finally, climate - exacerbated malnutrition will weaken bodily defences and leave many Africans more susceptible to all types of diseases, including AIDS".

Political instability: Population displacement is a sure recipe for internal and external attrition among people of the world. Africa cannot be an exception of this rule. It is a popular saying that a hungry man is an angry man. Food scarcity caused by crop failures which are due to global warning will heat up the polity. Some government have been toppled or voted out because of rise in price of bread and corn.

Decimation of populations: The current examples are Burma volcano, hurricane Katrina in New Orleans, and the Tsunami of 2004. Rwanda presents an example for Africa. The 1994 genocide in Rwanda was preceded by an unusual drought that decreased crop production, as well as an influx of refugees escaping Burundi after a coup; food prices soared and famine ensued. Several months later the genocide began.

There are towns and villages in some coastal areas of Africa that are prone to flood. If global warning persists, such cities as Lagos, Port Harcourt in Nigeria and other such low lying cities may be in danger.

Inland flash flooding due to heavy rains is also projected increase in intensity and occurrences. The 1997-98. floods in Kenya resulted in $1billion in damage, and the floods in Mozambique in 2000 resulted in 2 million people being displaced, with 350,000 jobs lost impacting the livelihood of up to 1.5million people" (Africa-up in smoke, p 25)

Is Africa involved in stimulating climate change?

Yes through bush burning, over grazing, logging for firewood and furniture, Co2 emission from company and private electronic generators, CFC emitting equipments like Refrigerators, air conditioners and perfumeries.

What roles can Landscape Architecture play in stymieing the ugly consequences of Climate Change? These questions and more will be answered in Part Two of this essay

(Concluded)

Niyi kehinde is the President, Society of Landscape Architects of Nigeria (SLAN)