The East African (Nairobi)

Congo-Brazzaville: Sassou-Nguesso Tipped to Win July 12 Poll

Kezio-Musoke D.

13 July 2009


Nairobi — The July 12 presidential elections in Congo Brazzaville are expected to return to power the incumbent President, Dennis Sassou Nguesso.

The opposition is already talking of anticipated poll fraud, and it will come as no surprise if the president wins that the election results will be disputed.

In 2002, Congo Brazzaville, a French colony in central Africa, held elections which the electoral commission banned opposition key figures from contesting and which were won by Sassou Nguesso in a landslide.

The 2002 election was dismissed as a complete sham by the opposition parties. Mr Sassou Nguesso came to power in the 1997 civil war.

The rejection in June of four candidates, including that of the main opposition party, is seen by many as a major threat to peace in the country.

According to Congo's Constitutional Court the main opposition candidate Ange Edouard Poungui, a 67-year old ex-premier, was rejected because he had not been continuously residing in the country for the past two years, as required by law. Mr Poungui was the choice of the main opposition Pan African Union for Social Democracy

The newspaper L'Observateur Paalga, quoted his party's spokesperson saying that the decision was "a measure taken to eliminate the most formidable adversaries for the president."

Though the African Union had by last week sent about 30 observers, the European Commission has indicated that Congo's election is not a priority.

Press reports show that at least 13 candidates were set to vie for the presidency, including the incumbent, President Sassou Nguesso, leader of the Congolese Labour Party (PCT).Not very many in the opposition though have faith in President Sassou Nguesso's bid. According to observers from the African Union, the 2007 parliamentary and the 2008 local government elections were riddled with fraud.

However this year, in anticipation of civil unrest, the National Security Council has deployed some 17,000 security officers to protect polling stations and election rallies as well as the candidates, including the incumbent.

This time round, reports claim that the country's electoral commission is still as fraudulent as it was before, and just as past elections have been marred by rebellions, coups, attempted coups and army mutinies, this year's elections may be no exception.

According to reports, the race is one which, analysts say was by the beginning of July already been won by President Sassou Nguesso, given the huge resources, both human and material, at his disposal, including both state resources and his massive personal wealth.

Observers, particularly the European Union, worry that the situation could get worse if he attempts to cling to power. If President Sassou Nguesso wins this election, he will be one of the longest serving African presidents.

He has been in power for 25 years, with a gap of five years, and like his son-in-law, the late President Omar Bongo of neighbouring Gabon, does not contemplate life after the presidency.

He came to power in a coup in 1979 and ruled for 13 years until multi-party elections brought Pascal Lissouba to the helm. He returned to power in 1997 after Mr Lissouba was overthrown in a civil war.

It is almost expected however, that Mr Sassou Nguesso will win the election considering that even the most formidable of his opponents and the rest of the opposition are all from the old school.

Among them is Joachim Yhombi-Opango, a former president from 1977 to 1979 and former prime minister from 1993 to 1996. The other is Bernard Kolélas, who also served as Mr Lissouba's prime minister in 1997.

The main opposition parties by last week had already expressed their mistrust of the national electoral body, the National Commission for the Organisation of Election.

Maixent Hanimbat, chairman of the Forum for Governance and Human Rights was quoted by news agencies as saying that "simmering discontent" was noticeable in the city, with frequent breakdowns in essential services such as water, healthcare and electricity and that the discontent could lead to civil war when the election results are announced by the beginning of this week.

Other news agencies reported that almost 900 weapons were collected from ex-rebels on the outskirts of the capital in the Pool region.

The densely forested Pool region was the scene of frequent clashes between 1998 and 2003, where so-called Ninja fighters led by Frederic Bintsamou, also known as Father Ntumi, battled troops of President Sassou Nguesso's government.

However there is a lot to President Sassou Nguesso's claim to fame, other than wanting to retain the leadership of Congo Brazzaville.

His spending habits at one time prompted the World Bank, led by Paul Wolfowitz, to delay the debt relief deal through the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries programmes after the latter learnt that aides to Mr Sassou Nguesso had paid £100,000 in cash for a hotel bill totalling £169,000 in September 2005.

In January 2007, the international media published accounts indicating that on a five-night stay in April 2006 in New York at the Waldorf Astoria, the suite occupied by Mr Sassou Nguesso recorded £12,000 of room service charges during the stay.

According to British newspaper, The Sunday Times, when Mr Sassou Nguesso attended the United Nations General Assembly meeting in September 2006, almost £14,000 of room service at the Waldorf Astoria was added to his bill.

His entourage, including several members of his family, occupied 44 rooms which together ran up a bill of £130,000. The bills on September 19 included two bottles of Cristal champagne charged at £400.

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