In the wake of an intense debate, described by some critics as a "debacle", on whether or not Zanzibar's oil should be a Union matter, analysts have shown concern that there is the likelihood the issue could weaken the cherished unity of the United Republic of Tanzania citizenry.

A cross-section of those who the Sunday Citizen interviewed say the Union could suffer a heavy jolt, particularly with the recent suspension by the Zanzibar Government licenses held by foreign companies that were in advanced stages of oil exploration.

There is now uncertainty over prospecting contracts signed by Shell International and Antrim Resources, firms that have operated in Zanzibar for nearly a decade, following last week's surprise move by the Isle's government to demand exclusion of oil and natural gas resources from the list of Union affairs.

A Zanzibar based political analyst, Mohammed Abdullah Khassani, said though many Islanders have always viewed the Union as an alliance of convenience, it was still good for the their development.

"It is therefore crucial to reduce the existing tensions by resolving as quickly as possible the nagging issues that beleaguer the Union," said Mr Khassani, adding that such a move would revive public confidence regarding the relevance of the Union for both the Islanders and Mainlanders.

However, Prof Abdallah Safari, a prominent lawyer and a university lecturer, told the Sunday Citizen yesterday that the Zanzibaris should be left alone to enjoy their resources the way they see fit. He charged that even the Mainland has resources that it doesn't share with the Isles.

"Does Zanzibaris benefit from the tanzanite from Mainland? Therefore, it follows that the Isles should enjoy whatever is found there and the question of the Mainland clinging to that is sheer double standard," he said.

And according to a University of Dar es Salaam don, Dr Lenny Kassonga, it is possible to have a stable Union so long as corrective measures are taken whenever there are seemingly some problems that are threatening to destabilise the historic arrangement.

It is acknowledged that the Union also suffered bruises after the 1995 General Election as both Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) and Civic United Front (CUF) mooted the idea of a coalition government in Zanzibar. The coalition idea was first raised by the first phase president, Mwalimu Julius Nyerere, during the first multi-party elections held in 1995.

For his part, the President of the African Progressive Party of Tanzania (APPT-Maendeleo), Mr Peter Kuga Mziray, says that the rather disturbing oil 'conflict' is not an isolated case but an offshoot from longtime complaints on the Union arrangement that have reminded unresolved.

He points out that even before the oil debate, there had been many other issues that brought a lot dissatisfaction and misunderstanding between the Isles and the Mainland. Therefore, he observed, there is always a tendency to consider any uncomfortable issue that arises a disrupter of the Union.

On the other hand, Mr Mziray says, the Zanzibaris have a right to protect their resources taking into consideration the fact that the available resources are frequently misused in the Mainland.

Moreover, he says, it is high time that Tanzanians both in the Isles and the Mainland were asked if they still see the Union as relevant in its current form.

Mr Mziray says that the longstanding, endless debates on the Union are a clear indication that people are not satisfied with the way things are run; probably they see it as an imposition by the rulers.

"It is high time the Union matters were resolved once and for all, otherwise we will keep on debating and debating these are fruitless debates," he remarked.

While celebrating the life of one of Tanzania's most prominent intellectuals, the late Haroub Othman in the city last week, a UDSM senior lecturer, Dr Azaveli Lwaitama cited a view by a celebrated Pan-Africanist Dr Raheem Tajudeen, who saw the major challenge with the Union as the 'Big Brother Bully' attitude on the side of Mainland towards Zanzibar.

In what could be linked to his discomfort over the ongoing oil debate, Prof Issa Shivji said at a symposium in Dar es Salaam on Thursday that it was important for Tanzanians to avoid fragmented politicking ahead of next year's General Election "lest we end up with a fragmented society."