The health sector will have to dig deeper into its coffers to mitigate against El Nino related epidemics, experts say.

The expected increased rainfall and high temperatures are likely to fuel the spread of malaria and Rift Valley fever, diseases that took up a huge chunk of the health budget during 1997 El Nino period.

Dr Andrew Githeko, a senior researcher with the Kenya Institute on Medical Research Institute (Kemri), warns that the existing number of hospitals will not be able to handle the increased infections if preventive interventions are not taken.

"As much as 23 per cent of the country's population is at risk of the disease incidents due to the changes in the rainfall patterns," he said.

Recently, the World Meteorological Organisation raised an alarm over a possibility of an El Nino phenomenon in the last quarter of this year.

The global met body says the prediction follows the periodic warming of water in the Pacific Ocean that is likely to affect weather around the world in a similar pattern, as was the case in 1997.

Kenya and East Africa fall right on the path of countries that are likely to experience floods.

"Rainfall creates new breeding habitats and adds water to existing ones. The hot temperature creates an optimal temperature for the mosquitoes to multiply", he said.

Government spendingMalaria related cases have been on a downward trend over the past months. But more cases means more government spending on drugs.

Dr Githeko was speaking during a training on climate based malaria prediction model for provincial medical and meteorological officials from Nyanza and Western provinces in Kisumu yesterday.

Dr Charles Mwendawiro, acting Kemri deputy director, said the training was a major step in the in laying ground for the preparation to contain the expected epidemics.

According to World Health Organisation (WHO) statistics, the El Nino floods from October 1997 to February 1998 that hit eastern Africa cost Kenya Sh70 billion, affecting about 160 million people globally.

It was the worst flooding recorded in East Africa since 1961 with rainfall 60 to 100 times higher than the seasonal average. Infrastructure was destroyed, crops were ruined, and health hazards ensued.

Scientists also reported the floods increased the prevalence of mosquitoes and malaria in all of East Africa, especially in the Rift Valley.

By December 1997, Rift Valley Fever had killed 478 people in Kenya and southern Somalia. Transmitted by mosquitoes, the fever also killed about 80 per cent of livestock in Northern Kenya.