New Vision (Kampala)

Uganda: Economic, Political Power Will Follow Oil in Western Part of the Country

opinion

Kampala — OIL production in Uganda is going to shift its economic centre of gravity as the western ledge becomes our national power house. Along with the the economic power house, the political and social forces are going to follow it.

Nothing is going to be able to match the national revenue from oil, at least in the near future, so it is inevitable that all eyes: businesses, workers, politicians, foreign interests, etc, are going to be on western Uganda and will inevitably drift there for each to pursue their individual interests.

This means that the central region's economic importance and stronghold is going to slowly fade away in comparison to western Uganda and these developments seem to herald or are an accidental harbinger to a new era of regional economic development of our country.

As the the oil industry gets into full gear, from the northwest down to the southwest, there is going to be a boom of new infrastructure, oil-related industries, supporting industries and businesses thus creating thousands of jobs and income. It will be akin to what happened in the US with the discovery of gold in California leading to a mass exodus of people from the east, where the country's original population was concentrated, in search of better opportunity.

The above political and socio-economic dynamics of a move away from central Uganda, as the economic power house, will also be reinforced by other developments that are simultaneously taking place.

There is the waking and resumption of economic growth and development in south Sudan, also spurred by its rich oil resources, that will tag northern Uganda and its towns and peoples along with it in its thirst for products and services kindled by its economic boom.

Along with this, the government has announced a project to upgrade Arua airstrip to an international airport that will definitely enhance transportation for businesses and individuals in the region instead of having to first go to Entebbe International Airport before getting to western and northern Uganda.

President Yoweri Museveni also increased the government's focus and efforts in deliberately boosting Karamoja's economic development by appointing Mrs. Janet Museveni, to be the minister for Karamoja's development. Karamoja is one of the worst victims of Uganda's inequitable regional development that has been left it lagging over 100 years behind the rest of the country. Gulu University is moving on and is definitely a much needed addition to the academic and economic development of the north.

The revival of tourism, the move towards non-traditional crops and government support of modern agriculture, and the discovery of several valuable and expensive minerals such as gold and uranium spread throughout the country are all other factors in conjunction with oil in the west that are going to ensure that growth and development is fairly and equally distributed for all Ugandans. After all, past governments failed to acknowledge its need and to act on it by putting a deliberate policy in place.

Note that western Uganda will not suffer like the central region as development will be spread out in Uganda! The result of an equitable regional development will be well dispersed economic resources, opportunity, and internal migrations that will inevitably put off the pressure from the central region and Buganda in particular that make up less than a fifth of Uganda's geographical area.

This will create a release pressure valve for all the tensions and squabbles over political management that have been created by the excess demand on the land and the other economic resources.

As the pressure and political headlock on the central region and Buganda cedes, the political interests will also die along and all the self-serving and artificial laws that may have been imposed by the central government will be obsolete.

This is because the forces of supply and demand and nature will have taken their course. Predictably, the idea of a federal government will not seem so bizarre!

The writer is a supporter of a federal system of governance


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Comments 1 to 1 of 1 Post a comment

  • Steve Klaber
    Jul 30 2009, 08:17

    If you let this happen to you, you too will be talking about the "oil curse". You must develop your oil primarily for yourselves, with export a deliberately minor sideshow. If you get tied into Export/Import too heavily, your independence will become mythical, but your rulers will be unaware that they rule you. The money earned in export must largely be used in import. Otherwise, your trading partners cannot long continue. Money used to import employs mostly foreign workers at the expense of your own businesses and workers. Exporting it "value added" by refining it yourselves first helps a little. Plan your exports around financing your necessary imports- those things that it just does not make sense to make for yourselves, generally unusual machinery.

    Look around you, at the countries with the "resource curse", and do not follow in their footsteps.