Nairobi — Food experts on Monday predicted a poor maize harvest, which is likely to compel Kenya to depend more on imports to feed its people.They said this year's production of maize, Kenya's staple food, might be below the 20 million bags announced by the Agriculture ministry last week.

Speaking at a press conference in Nairobi, Mr Steve Collins, the country director of ACDI/VOCA, said maize production was likely to stand at 15 million bags this year, against a demand of 35 million bags.

ACDI/VOCA is a United States-based NGO involved in the promotion of agriculture.

Flour prices

This means Kenya will continue to depend on maize imports to maintain steady maize flour prices.

Last week, the Agriculture ministry put the estimated production at 20 million bags, 15 million short of the country's demand.

"Frankly, if you look at the maize that is currently tasselling at chest height, production is bound to be less than the predicted figure. Twenty million is an obvious over-estimate," Mr Collins said.

The lower maize output this year is being blamed on prolonged drought in the main growing zones combined with the cumulative effect of high fertiliser prices and last year's political unrest.

Only two per cent of Kenya's agriculture depends on irrigation and the failure of the long rains this year, combined with the poor short rains last year, have resulted in poor harvests for farmers.

The experts said preparations for water harvesting in anticipation of El Niño floods, expected next month, were important to ensure irrigation in the future.

Cereal Growers' Association chief executive officer David Nyameino said the production of wheat is also expected to dip to 2.8 million bags compared to the 3.5 million normally produced every year.

He was speaking ahead of this year's Maize Business Fair set to be held at the Chepkoilel campus of Moi University in Eldoret.

Maize is the staple food crop for 96 per cent of Kenya's population, estimated at between 37 and 40 million. The experts put the demand at 37 million bags given that each Kenyan consumes an average of a bag a year.

At an average production rate of nine bags per acre, said Mr Collins, Kenya's production is much lower than the global average and the potential of the land has not been fully exploited.

Improvements

He said there is need for improvements in land preparation, use of proper fertilisers for various soil types and better access to credit to buy inputs.

The red soil that is mostly found in areas considered Kenya's breadbasket, he said, requires lime fertilisers as it is mainly acidic, and farmers need proper advice on this issue. Farmers also need to be advised on the proper seeds to plant depending on the climate of the areas.

"Kenya is the second largest consumer of seeds in Sub-Saharan Africa after South Africa but this is still not enough," Mr Collins said.

The situation is made worse because 20 to 30 per cent of the produce is lost after harvesting due to lack of proper storage and handling facilities.